Wednesday 14th March - Preview

The feature race on Wednesdays' card is the Queen Mother Champion Chase over 2 miles. This could turn into a tasty renewal of the race. An interesting stat is 23 out of the last 25 winners have been single figures in the betting.

Last years Arkle winner Voy Por Ustedes was a long time favourite for this race but has now drifted out to joint third favourite after, uncharacteristically, unseating his jockey last time out at Newbury.

New favourite Well Chief has come into the picture after convincingly winning a race at Newbury by 11 lengths after an almost two year absence, however after being off for so long there is always the bounce back factor to be considered and in light of that the best priced 7/4 currently on offer looks a tad skinny. Second favourite and defending champion Newmill won his last race, but that was over hurdles. His form over jumps this season has been less than inspiring taking a fall at Punchestown and in the race before that he finished a distant fourth behind Iktitaf in a hurdle. He is the sort of horse that needs everything to go his way and can easily be overlooked.

Nickname has won five of his six races this season, including the Grade 1 Paddy Power Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas. The biggest question mark surrounding him is he hasn’t yet raced in Britain so it isn’t clear how well he will travel. If he travels OK then he could be in at the shake up. Surprises are few and far between in this race but if there is going to be a surprise then Justified could be the one that springs the shock.

Whichever way I look at the race I can't ignore Voy Por Ustedes. He has only won one of his four races since his Arkle victory last season. The final race of last season, where he was beaten by Foreman, was probably a race too far for him after a relatively hard season. In his first outing this season he was soundly beaten by no less a light than Kauto Star, no shame there, more telling though was he was well clear of the remainder of the competitive field. His next race saw him turn the tables on Foreman and he also beat another of todays rivals Oneway in a convincing style. Last times problem came because he took off one step too early, dumping his jockey on the ground, I think he can be forgiven that lapse and I suggest an investment on him with a saver on Nickname.

A much more interesting race is the Royal and Sun Alliance Novices Chase at 2:35, where we have the nearest there is to a banker at this years festival, albeit at a very skinny price. Denman is currently trading at a best price of 11/8 and I wouldn’t be at all surprised if he ends up starting at shades of odd on. He has done all that has been asked of him this season and, apart from a minor mistake at Exeter, his jumping has been exemplary throughout. It can be argued he hasn’t beaten much but at the end of the day he can only beat what has been put out to race him and, to be honest, most trainers have been running scared of him. If you follow the stats though you may be wary, the favourite has only obliged five times in the last 20 years and the last winning favourite was in 1992. The other worry is Denman was most peoples banker at last years Cheltenham festival and a large number of people lost fortunes as a result of him being beaten. However that was over hurdles and he is a much more mature horse this year and the slower pace of chase racing seems to suit

The final race of the day is the Bumper, which is an Irish benefit with the prize crossing the Irish Sea in eight of the last ten years. I can see than coming nine from eleven with Cork All Star being a very generously priced 6/1 in places.

Wednesday Review

Three hot favourites, Aran Concerto, Denman and Well Chief were the focus of attention on the second day of the Cheltnham Festival, with punters hoping to get back some of their first day losses and the bookmakers hoping against hope they would all be beaten.

First blood went to the bookmakers when the Irish banker bet of the meeting, Aran Concerto only managed to finish 5th in the opening Ballymore Properties Novice Hurdle. In truth she never looked to be a serious contender and it could be the drying ground went against her, the same can be said of the fourth, and our tip, Silverburn who was well backed into 7/2 second favouritism. The winner was 20/1 shot Massini’s Maguire who was to the fore most of the most of the race and who managed to hold off the challenge of 10/1 shot Tidal Bay, who at one point looked as though he could be the victor. The fast finishing 7/1 shot Catch Me finished third.

Denman was considered to be the British banker of the meeting and he convincingly ran out the 10 length winner of the Royal and Sun Alliance Chase at cramped odds of 6/5. Aces Four looked to be the only horse who would mount a challenge and he was neck and neck with Denman until a mistake three out. Irish hope Calin Alainn fell early on in the race with the other Irish hope Snowy Morning coming in second at 10/1 and 66/1 outsider According To John took third place. The bookies took a caning in this race, not least to owner Harry Findlay who took £2m out of the bookies satchels.

So the decider was down to Well Chief in the feature race, The Seasons Holidays Queen Mother Champion Chase. The big shock though is the hot favourite fell at the second fence so it was 2 –1 to the bookies and there was a collective smile amongst the layers. Last years Arkle Winner Voy Por Ustedes showed his class to beat 20/1 shot Dempsey and another outsider River City came in third …. this was despite the winner giving the second last fence a hefty clout.  Last years winner Newmill was in contention but quickly fell away before the turn into the home straight to finish fourth. Ashley Brook took a heavy fall at the last whist in contention but it is still questionable whether he would have been involved in the finish.

The Coral Cup is the jumping version of the proverbial cavalry charge, with 28 runners contesting the near 2¾ mile hurdle race. The nature of the race became apparent when the first casualty in the race was Barry Geraghty was dumped on the ground on the flat when his mount Finger on The Pulse clipped heels, Geraghty was lucky to walk away without serious injury. Finger on The Pulse was an apt runner as the 10/1 winner Burntoakboy is trained by first season trainer Dr Richard Newland whose day job is a GP. Ridden by up and coming  jockey Sam Jones this result was the first fairytale of this years festival. Burnoakboy, whose victory even surprised his trainer, was looking the winner from the second last and he faced no real threat from 12/1 second Powerstation, Baron De Feypo was the 20/1 third (although judging from the unedifying behaviour of his connections in the paddock after the race you could have been under the mistaken belief that he had won the race), 8/1 shot Oscatello was fourth. Well backed 6/1 favourite Copsale Lad was another favourite who wasn’t really at the races and it was soon evident he wouldn’t win.

The Fulke Walwyn Kim Muir Challenge Cup is the big race for amateur riders. Two runners Nadova and Lord of Illusion made the initial pace, perhaps too fast a pace stringing out the field pretty early on. By the time they reached the back straight for the first time there was already 12 lengths from first to last. The brave winner was the 15/2 favourite Cloudy Lane ridden by Richard Burton, who refused to be beaten as challenge after challenge came and went. Trained by first season trainer Donald McCain, son of Ginger this was the bravest winner of the day. At one point it looked as though Nina Carberry on Derby Wall was heading for her  second victory of the festival, but she ended up finishing unplaced. Second place was taken by the very fast finishing 12/1 shot Parsons Legacy, although it would have been a travesty had Cloudy Lane been beaten. Another running on horse, 20/1 Chekey Lady finished third and Ponmeoath at 16/1 finished fourth.

The final race is the Weatherbys Champion Bumper, the flat race of the week. A cracking race which went to the Irish in the shape of Cork All Stars the 11/2 second favourite who sat handy until the final turn when he took the lead. There to be shot at he resolutely held on as challengers came from all directions. Sophocles a 40/1 outside was a fast finisher who looked the winner at one point. Aranleigh at 8/1 was third and Shirley Casper at 25/1 was fourth. The well backed 4/1 favourite was Mad Fish and arguably he was unlucky in running. If you can get a video of this race watch it as there will be plenty of future winners emerging from it.             

Recommendations (Points on a scale of confidence from 1 - 10)

2:35 Denman 4pts Win WON 6/5

3:15 Voy Por Ustedes 3pts E/W WON 5/1

3:15 Nickname 2pts E/W Non Runner

3:15 Voy Por Ustedes & Nickname 1pt Reverse Forecast Non Runner

5:20 Cork All Star 2pts E/W Won 11/2

Other Races

2:00 Silverburn E/W Lost

4:00 Mahogany Blaze E/W Lost

4:40 Ardaghey E/W Non Runner