Thursday 15th March - Preview

The long distance hurdlers take centre stage today with the Ladbroke World Hurdle being the days feature race.

Black Jack Ketchum is the short priced favourite but he all but pulled up in his last race, in heavy ground here at Cheltenham. Connections have said the heavy going was the reason, however up until that point he seemed to be running quite happily in the ground. A more realistic theory is, for the first time in his racing career, he was running against better horses and was unable to dictate and basically he sulked, in other words he did run to his level and was beaten by better horses.  The worrying news is it looks as though the going for the festival is going to be sticky at best and if the forecast rain this week materialises then it’s highly likely the going will be heavy for the duration of the meeting, in which case a serious question mark must hang over Black Jack Ketchum. To me he is the lay of the meeting.

At a long price, I quite like Lough Durg, last time out he was a running on second in Ascot’s Long Walk Hurdle, quite often a good indicator for this race. Some commentators claim this seasons Long Walk was a muddling race with questionable form, however at prices of around 25/1 the horse is a reasonable each way chance, although not one to place the mortgage on.  Another for the shortlist has to be the 2005 winner Inglis Drever, who on a going day could still be in the shake up.

The opening Jewson Novices Chase will have a big field, however it looks to be between the top two in the betting King Revo and New Little Bric. There is so little between them I suggest a small investment on them both.

The Ryanair Chase at 2:35 is a more open contest and it is difficult to predict a winner as there are so many doubts as to which horses will be taking part in the race. An update will be added when the actual runners are clearer.

Thursday Review

A minor upset in the opening Jewson Novices Chase saw Ferdy Murphy’s L’Antartique come from off the pace to take the spoils at a punter bashing 20/1. He won by a fast diminishing two lengths as the Cheltenham Hill started to take its toll. Bob Hall was the challenger in second at 10/1, whilst the minor honours went to Wee Robbie and Rasharrow at 20/1 and 14/1 respectively. Strongly fancied King Revo found it all too much and was pulled up, whilst top weight Little Bric found the weight too much to carry and he finished a disappointed 7th.

The Ryanair Chase saw the well backed Taranis at 9/2 just hold on from the late onslaught of Our Vic and Billyvodan. Left in front at the fourth last, Taranis did well but was slowing up the hill, conversely Our Vic had seemed to be out of sorts for most of the race before his final surge. Our Vic was returned at 7's and Billyvodan 20/1.

For the second day running the hot favourite fell at the early stages of the days feature race as Black Jack Ketchum crashed out at the third flight. At the business end the 2005 winner Ingles Dreaver, who missed last years renewal, held off the challenge of Mighty Man and Blazing Bailey in another exciting finish. Mighty Man especially came with a late rattle and only lost by a diminishing ¾ length. The SP’s were 5/1, 100/30 and 8/1.

The Racing Post Chase returned a more decisive winner with the Venetia Williams trained Idole First winning by four lengths at 12/1. A winner at the Festival in 2005 he was in contention a long way out and a perfect jump at the last saw him coast to victory. Palashan at 28/1 was a running on second, whilst the winners last real challenger Mariah Rollins at 20/1 finished third.

There was a dramatic incident following the National Hunt Cup when shock 33/1 winner Butlers Cabin collapsed but after treatment he appeared to be OK. He could be described as a fortunate winner as firstly hot favourite Gungadu crashed out at the last but one fence. Then in a driving finish the seeming running on winner, 7/1 shot, Character Building started drifting badly. Had he maintained a straight line he could possibly have been the winner, only going down by ¾ length. 100/1 shot Countess Trifaldi finished 9 lengths behind the first two.        

Recommendations (Points on a scale of confidence from 1 - 10)

2:00 My Little Bric 2pts E/W Lost

2:00 King Revo 2pts E/W Lost

3:15 Lough Durg 1pt E/W Lost

Other Races

4:00 Madison De Berlais E/W Lost

4:40 Gungadu Win Lost

Lay Of The Day

3:15 Black Jack Ketchum Bet won - horse fell