Friday 16th March - Preview

The climax of the meeting is the Totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup and this years renewal has the potential to be a cracker. The horse whose name a lot of people have trouble pronouncing Kauto Star (by the way the correct pronunciation is core-toe), is the short priced favourite. This year he has done little wrong, winning all his races …. however in his last two races he has made howling last fence mistakes and it was only Ruby Walsh’s seemingly Velcro breeches that prevented horse and jockey parting company, couple this with the fact that Kauto Star fell on his only previous visit to Cheltenham and the doubts start setting in. Two other concerns then come into play, the 3¼ miles of the Gold Cup is the longest distance he has faced to date. Finally he has never performed well in a field with a large number of runners. In his runs this year he has come to the last fence way ahead of his field or with only a single challenger, he is unlikely to be in that position in the Gold Cup. I’m not saying he won’t win but you would be putting a great deal of trust in his ability for very poor odds. If he does win the Gold Cup then he can certainly be considered one of the greats and I will be the first to applaud him. With last years winner War of Attrition out of the race, although I would have been happy to lay him, there are plenty of quality horses who will pounce should Kato Star fail.

Beef or Salmon continues to perform like a top chaser back home in Ireland but whenever he crosses the Irish Sea he seems to leave his form at home, so he is another one to lay. The Listener is an up and coming star but it is worrying that he seemed to run out of petrol last time out at Leopardstown where be was just caught on the line by Beef and Salmon.

I must confess I have had a modest each way investment on Tony McCoy’s mount Exotic Dancer at 10/1.  This season, the horse has shown a keen liking for Cheltenham winning all 3 of his appearances at the course. The ability to cope with the Cheltenham fences should not be under estimated and having AP in the saddle is an added bonus. However he is now as short as 4/1 and is therefore no longer a decent each way prospect.

A far better each way bet is last years 4th L’Ami. Many say he is a better horse this year and in Kato Stars latest run he gave the favourite a good run for his money. Some observers say that L’Ami’s close proximity to Kato Star at the last contributed to the latter’s mistake, I’m personally not convinced myself (he managed to make a Horlicks of the last in the King George all on his own). Currently available at around 16/1, one of the  leading bookmakers, who is one of the biggest layers at Cheltenham, says he will be offering 8/1 on the day, so get on soon. 

Friday Live Review

14:10

Trainer Alan King can seemingly do little wrong at this years festival as 11/2 shot Katchit took the Triumph Hurdle, the opening race of the fourth and final day. Taking the lead at the second last he never looked in any danger winning by a decisive 9 lengths what, on paper, should have been a competitive race. Liberate was a running on second at 12/1. Third was 33/1 outsider Mobaasher and Punjabi, who looked the one to beat at one point in the race finished fourth at 9/1. Tony McCoy's disappointing Cheltenham continued as his not unfancied mount Mountain finished tailed off.

14:45

Sir Jimmy Shand made the early running in the Brit Insurance Hurdle with Black Harry taking up the running three out and looking the likely winner, with 11/8 favourite Wichita Lineman struggling at that point. Coming to the last they were only a length apart, when Black Harry took a crashing fall, leaving Wichita Lineman well clear of the field giving Tony McCoy his first win of the week. Air Force One was 15 lengths second at 25/1 with 100/1 shot Itsa Legend coming in third. Despite the fall Wichita Lineman was looking the better of the pair coming to the last and it’s quite likely the favourite would still have won. The biggest cheer of the day came as Blach Harry emerged from behind the green screens and was able to walk back to the stables to, hopefully, fight another day. 

15:30

The big race of the week and arguably the season was the Totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup where 18 horses lined up and faced the starter. The runners were off  first time, an achievement this week. Beef or Salmon was up front early on, whilst Kauto Star was happy to sit near the rear and Excotic Dancer was very much held up. Idle Talk was the first faller. Kauto Star made a couple of jumping errors early on but he handled them OK. Tony McCoy was still playing a waiting game on Exotic Dancer as they completed their first circuit, where Kauto Star was midfield. Neptune Collonges took up the running as they went out on the second circuit. Well into the second circuit McCoy was following the favourite as Beef or Salmon once again faded. There was bunching as they turned in, coming to the second last Kauto Star takes it up followed by Exotic Dancer with the two of them running clear. Kauto Star once again made a mistake at the last but stayed on his feet to beat  Exotic Dancer with Turpin Green running the race of his life to finish third at 40/1. For his troubles Kauto Star picks up a £1m bonus for winning the race … he is a superstar and as one of his doubters I’m more than happy to admit I was wrong about him. 

16:20

After Kauto Star’s win the Foxhunters had the potential to be an anticlimax, but nobody told the participants. It was a cracking finish with the favourite Whyso Mayo (2/1) and Dronbeag  (20/1) swapping the lead several times from the home turn to the line with the outsider winning by ¾ of a length bravely hanging on from the closing favourite. Third was Ned Kelly at 20/1. What a breathless afternoon and we still have two more races.

16:50

I'm glad this is the penultimate race as my nerves cannot take much more. Another exciting finish and another winner for Robert Thornton taking him to the top of the Festival jockeys table, meaning Ruby Walsh has to win the last to be champion jockey. The 3 length winning margin doesn't tell the full story as it was nip and tuck between ultimate 12/1 winner Andreas and brave 8/1 runner up Hasty Prince with the winner only exerting his authority in the last 50 yards. Ground Ball at 33/1 was third and Ursis at 14/1 fourth.

17:35

For pure excitement the best was left to last. Six horses in line jumping the last and another six behind them in with a chance and it was one of the back six that came through to grab the race on the line. looking more like an Epsom sprint than a festival finish this was racing at it's best and it wasn't possible to name the winner on the line, but there had to be one and it was Champion Hurdle winning jockey Phil Carburry on 12/1 shot Pedrobob who just got up on the line, denying Ruby Walsh the jockeys title as he came in second on Ouninpohja (11/2) , Premier Dane (100/1) was third and Kawagino at 20/1 was fourth.

There couldn't have been a better ending to a thrilling four days of racing and it's only 361 days to the start of next years festival and what price Kauto Star making it two Gold Cups? Well if you must know he is 2/1, get on now!!!

        

Recommendations (Points on a scale of confidence from 1 - 10)

3:15 Exotic Dancer 2pts Win Placed

3:15 L'Ami 3pts E/W Lost

Other Races

2:00 Freeze The Frame E/W Lost

2:35 Wichita Lineman Win Won 11/8

4:00 Patches E/W Fell

5:20 Acambo E/W non runner

Lay Of The Day

3:15 Kauto Star What a star ... I was wrong!!