John Smith’s Grand National Chase 4½ miles
The 2009 John Smiths Grand National is turning into a difficult race in which to find the winner.
I cannot recall a year in which so many touted horses have fallen by the wayside, even before the meeting begins.
Even yesterday, when the five day declarations been announced, no sooner had the ink dried on the list of runners than War Of Attrition was withdrawn.
So what is going to win what is, arguably, the greatest race in the world.
Last years winner Comply Or Die bids to become only the eighth horse to win more than one Grand National and the first since Red Rum over 30 years ago. Like many previous National winners his form has been appalling since his moment of glory at Aintree. His three runs since have the form figures of P07, not the most inspirational add to that an additional 11lbs of weight and he is easily overlooked.
One of the few races to have eluded multiple champion trainer Paul Nicholls is the Grand National and he saddles the current favourite My Will, the mount of Ruby Walsh (twice a winner of the big one). A very creditable fifth in the Cheltenham Gold Cup he probably is Nicholls best chance to date of winning the elusive first National. However his odds of around 8/1 are prohibitive and from a stats perspective favourites have a terrible record in the race, only six winners in the last 47 years.
Another looking to break his Aintree hoodoo is perennial champion Jockey Tony McCoy. Although still to be finalised it looks as though he will be riding Butler’s Cabin, on whom McCoy fell at Beechers Brook second time around last year. Whatever McCoy rides will be well backed and from an emotional perspective it would be a popular win. However if, as expected, the champ is on Butler’s Cabin then he will have another year to wait for National glory.
Cloudy Lane now has top weight in this years contest. Sixth last year, 30 lengths behind the winner, he is now being asked to carry an extra 13lbs this year, an impossible task.
Chelsea Harbour was ninth last year finishing tired, his rider later admitted he may have got the tactics wrong as he looked to be a thorough stayer. He has an extra 6lbs to carry this year and, with different riding tactics, must be one for the shortlist.
Black Apalachi only managed to get as far as the second in last years contest, however he has since gone on and won over the large fences and granted a clear run must be in with a chance of a place at the very least.
State of Play is an interesting contender. Evan Williams charge has been lightly raced this season, with both his runs coming at Wetherby. Winner of the Charlie Hall in November and fourth in the Roland Merryck over Christmas. He looks as though the distance will not be a problem, his jumping is sound and the handicapper has given him a sporting chance.
Another contender who has had a light campaign is Rambling Minster, impressive winner of both his races this season. Trained by Keith Reveley and ridden by son James he has been laid out for this contest. The 4m 4f may be at the edge of his stamina reserves, however he has winning form over 4 miles and the going will be in his favour. The handicapper has also given him every chance and he will be carrying the bulk of my money on Saturday.
For those looking for something with a longer price then the 25/1 Hilld are offering on Kilbeggan Blade are worthy of closer inspection.
Recommendations (on a scale of 1-10)
Rambling Minster 5pts e/w (10/1 generally available)
State Of Play 3ps e/w (16/1 generally available)
Kilbeggan Blade 1pt e/w (25/1 William Hill & VC Bet)
Whatever your fancy in the big race don't forget we will be bringing you live updates from Aintree for all three days of this years Festival