John Smith’s Grand National Chase 4½ miles  

Hedgehunter – winner of the race in 2005, now a 12 year old and has far too much weight to carry. The choice of Ruby Walsh but as in the Gold Cup Ruby has chosen the wrong horse.

Hi Cloy – Classy Irish challenger but no hope in the National is carrying far to much weight and the 4½ miles is about two miles longer than he wants.

Knowwhere – appropriately named in the context of this race. 3¼ miles is about his limit and was very disappointing in the Gold Cup. Also another with too much weight.

Mr Pointment – winner of the Becher chase over the National fences last November, he was one of my early fancies. Since that victory he has been disappointing and the handicapper has done him no favours.

Turko – one of the horses Ruby rejected, will he regret it? He’s a grey so will be popular but at only six years old is he mature enough to win the National? The last six year old winner was 110 years ago. His time will come but not this year

Madison Du Berlais – A game and reliable horse from the Pipe stable. Another who is perhaps too young and he has a big weight to carry. Others preferred.

Simon – Will be popular with people called Simon and not without a chance. Fell six out in last years race and despite carrying 11 stone 7lbs has a chance of at least being placed if he stays on his feet.

Opera Mundi – Non runner

Iron Man – A reasonable horse on a “normal” racecourse, however his record over the National fences is appalling having fallen both times. No appeal in this race.

Fundamentalist – a brave battler but another let down by his jumping. If he stays on his feet he could be there at the shake up but it would take a massive leap of faith to back him.     

Butlers Cabin – another of my early fancies who has done nothing right in his recent runs. He is Tony McCoy’s choice for the race and if he does run to his true form (he won the Irish National in 2007) he will have a lively chance.

Slim Pickings – Third in last years race so has the form in the race. Has not been too harshly treated by the handicapper and must be one for the shortlist.

Chelsea Harbour – will be an anathema to supporters of the other 19 Premiership clubs. He stays all day and is one of the strong Irish challengers in this years race. The only negative is he would have preferred more rain.

Vodka Bleu – A sound jumper who has shown improved form this season. Not without a chance but others preferred to this long shot.

L’Ami – Finished a tired 10th in last years race. A good horse on his day he seems to have fallen out of love with racing this year.

Snowy Morning – Another top Irish runner with a serious chance. Has the class and stamina to take the race.

Bewleys Berry – a proven performer over the National fences being twice runner up in the Becher Chase. The distance should not trouble him and pretty certain, with luck, to get a place.

Contraband – the only way he will win is if someone smuggles him across the line. Unlikely to get the distance and seriously out of form this season.

McKelvey – an unlucky runner up last year where he finished the race lame after being hampered two out. Has only had one run, which he needed, since. Questionable if he will be as close this year.

Joaaci – temperamental so and so as his 66/1 odds refelect.

Point Barrow – Another well backed Irish raider, some question marks about his ability to stay 4½ miles and has shown some signs of temperament.
 
D’Argent – one who will not be troubled by the distance, however his jumping is sketchy at best and it is not too clear how he will cope with the Aintree fences.

No Full – No Full – No F*** chance

Baily Breeze – another here more in hope than expectation

Bob Hall – The Albert Hall would have a better chance of winning

Cloudy Lane – could well go off the shortest price favourite since Red Rum. From the McCain stables this was a very impressive winner of the Grimthorp Chase at Doncaster last time out.  Has every chance if getting round but is he value at 9/2?

King Johns Castle – Bidding to be the first grey to win since 1961. Has attracted some decent money. Biggest worry is he bled last time out.

Mon Mome – stays all day although jumping can be iffy at times. Runner up in the Welsh National and if he gets round could be a good each way investment.

Cornish Sett – can be lazy sometimes but is surely better than the 125/1 on offer?

Naunton Brook – another who stays all day and who looks to be overpriced. Liks to front run and can sulk if he does not get his own way.

Tumbling Dice – will need a very lucky throw of the dice to win this one

Backbeat – two clues in the name here Back (as in last) and Beat (as in not winning)

Comply Or Die – Winner of the Eider Chase at Newcastle however no winner of the Eider has even been placed in the National. He is currently second favourite. His front running style may be against him.

Idle Talk – Talk of him winning is just that – idle talk!!

Kelami – older brother of L’Ami he is a sound jumper. The big negative is the weather has gone against him as he prefers soft or even heavy going.  

Milan Deux Milles – a nightmare for the commentators, fortunately for them he will not be involved in the finish. Is  better at distances short of 3 miles.  

Nadover – another who would prefer more cut in the ground and also temperamental.

Black Apalachi – outclassed

Philson Run – just made the cut. No doubts about getting the trip. Major worry is the going, he is another who likes the rain.

Dun Doire – seems to have a passionate dislike for the Aintree fences so am not at all sure why Tony Martin is running him again.

Ardaghey – has just made it into the race following the defection of Opera Mundi. It’s just a shame he is a bad jumper

Conclusion

A very difficult race to call this year. Undoubtedly Cloudy Lane is a justifiable favourite following his performance at Doncaster but 9/2 is a very short price in a race where luck plays as big a part as skill.

If Butlers Cabin does run up to his best he will have every chance, however he has shown little this season and you will be putting a lot of faith in his wellbeing if you chose to invest.

Slim Pickings has the best chance of last years placed horses and placed horses do have a knack of coming good.   

Chelsea Harbour , Snowy Morning and Bewleys Berry all look to be strong Irish challengers as well.

If pushed to select one then it is hard to look past the favourite CLOUDY LANE.

Previous Recommendations

Ungaro 2pts e/w @ 40/1 non runner
Point Barrow 2pts e/w @t 20/1

Philson Run 2pts e/w @ 33/1
Chelsea Harbour 2pts e/w @ 20/1