2:00 John Smith’s Novice Chase

In all honesty a rather disappointing turn out for this renewal and it is very hard to look beyond the favourite Albertas Run. The Royal and Sun Alliance winner again meets five of the horses he beat at Cheltenham and I do not think any have sufficient improvement to turn the tables.

The two other contenders have shown no promise, so on all known form everything points to the favourite.

2:35 Citroen C5 Sefton Novices Hurdle

I have long been a fan of Nenuphar Collonges, who was a convincing winner of the Albert Bartlett at Cheltenham and I think he has decent each way chance this afternoon.

However one that does worry me is Keith Reveley’s Tazbar, who swerved the Festival to run here today. The gelding has made a convincing start to his hurdling career and his last run, over three miles, at Haydock put him in many notebooks. He also has more scope for improvement.

Having talked up the chances of these two runners, this is by no means a two horse race and strong cases could be made for quite a few of the others including Souffleur, Gone To Lunch and, at a long price, Middleton Dene.

3:10 John Smith’s Melling Chase

Yesterday I was more than happy to take on a couple of hot shots in the shape of Inglis Drever and Kauto Star.

Today I am prepared to be even bolder and take on Master Minded.

His performance at Cheltenham was simply awesome and it was a privilege to be there to witness it. That race was over 2 miles and today he runs over 2½ miles and that could be the chink in his armour. He was tapped for pace over 21 furlongs in France, admittedly on very soft going. The other negative is both times he has run within three weeks of his last run he fell.

Voy Por Ustedes has long been a favourite of mine, however this is also his first attempt over the extended distance and with the possibility of a fast pace I would rather watch than play today.

Tamarinbleu was very disappointing at Cheltenham and provided he has recovered he could be the winner, with proven form over the distance I can see him running on as his opponents tire.

3:45 John Smith’s Topham Chase

Back to the big obstacles for this race and with the bookmakers going 8/1 the field in this 30 runner race you can see how hard it is going to be to find the winner.

I am almost tempted to suggest you find your Granny’s lucky pin for this one, but hat is the cowards way out.

Stats are just stats and are there to be broken. A significant stat is that Paul Nicholl’s is 0 from 20 with just two placed in this race. Having said that I do like the look of his Gwanako, who looks like another improver from the yard and may be the best chance he has to break his duck in the race.

We all know the Irish have a good record in the national itself in recent years and one of the Irish challengers in particular, Botha Na, catches my eye. From the Willie Mullins yard the horse has won a few of the “Nationals” that have sprung up in Ireland in recent years. His form can be somewhat in and out but Mullins is no mug and he is not sending his horse over for the fun of it.

4:20 Top Novices’ Hurdle

Captain Cee Bee, winner of the Supreme Novices, will be a warm order favourite and the form of the race has been boosted by Binocular’s facile win yesterday.

However I am keen to take him on with a runner who did not go to Cheltenham. I was at Kempton last week and was very impressed with the way Greenbridge gave the promising Procas de Thaix a comprehensive 40 length beating. The only question mark being the nine days since the run, although as he hardly broke sweat it may not be a real fear.

4:55 totepool Handicap Chase

Although eighteen go to post there is not much strength in depth in this race with only a couple stand out.

Mister Top Notch, not from a fashionable stable, has won some decent races in his native Ireland. When upped to Listed company two runs ago he was a creditable fourth to The Listener and back in handicap company he should not be discountet.

Kings Euro has made eye catching progress this season and has consequently risen in the weights, up 11 pounds in his last three runs. However there are still signs he is improving and he should be in the shake up this afternoon.

5:30 Standard Open Flat Race

An absolute nightmare and another for Granny’s pin.

If pushed I would suggest Argento Luna – no strong reason just that she has the marginal better form.