1.40 The Investec Diomed Stakes (Group 3)
2.10 The Investec Mile (Handicap)
2.45 The Investec Coronation Cup (Group 1)
3.25 The Investec Challenge (Heritage Handicap)
4.05 The Investec Oaks (Group 1)
4.50 The Investec Surrey Stakes (listed)
5.25 The Investec Opportunity Stakes (Handicap)
The Investec Diomed Stakes (Group 3)
Lovelace has been hammered by the handicapper but does have group winning form. Not disgraced last time out when he met no luck in running, he is not without a chance back in this grade.
There are questions about the suitability of the distance for Hatt Fort and Vitznau both stamina, and Confront , Deposer and Without A Prayer dropping down in distance.
The other contenders are all upped in class.
Verdict: almost by default the verdict has to go to Lovelace.
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The Investec Mile (Handicap)
An absolutely dire handicap for the meeting with negatives against all the runners, none of whom you would want to trust with your mortgage.
Top weight Philario won in heavy ground at The Curragh, he has a very poor strike rate though and has been raised seven pounds for that victory.
Plum Pudding had been considered a Newmarket specialist until winning ar Warwick recently, however the undulations of Epsom are something different altogether. Having said that the form of his Warwick race is working out pretty well.
More Time Tim is an Irish import who has performed well on the all weather and is now with local Epsom trainer Jim Boyle. There is nothing to suggest a return to turf will be an inconvenience.
Verdict: A tricky handicap in which any one of the runners could win on their day. A chance is being taken that More Time Tim will carry his all weather form back to the turf.
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The Investec Coronation Cup (Group 1)
Only eight runners but a very tasty renewal.
Ask
Winner of the Yorkshire Cup at 1m 6f back in May. Although he has won over 1m 2f the feeling is that now 1½ miles is probably his minimum trip.
Seems to handle most going conditions and no reason why he could not run for a place.
Buccellati
You will have to go a long way to find a more genuine horse. Has a decent 36% strike rate and William Buick rides him well.
This is a step up in class but another with each way potential
Duncan
A relatively unexposed improver. Won a handicap over course and distance in April, albeit in a handicap, however it at least shows he handles the course.
Went on to win a Listed race at Ascot next time out, without being over exerted.
Clearly a runner on the upgrade and dangerous to rule out of calculations.
Eastern Anthem
Godolphin’s entry in the contest who, on paper looks a lively contender, having won three decent races in Dubai earlier this year. However that was with another trainer.
Godolphin are going through a poor spell at the moment, seemingly struggling to get the winners out and with their current form Eastern Anthem must be a lay in this contest.
Expresso Star
Took a while for the penny to drop but has done well in handicap company over a mile.
Was not disgraces over a mile and a quarter at Chester last time out.
However this is a trip into the unknown being a significant rise in class plus he is unproven over the distance.
Frozen Fire
Very disappointing here in last years Derby before going on to win the Irish version three weeks later. Could well suggest he was unsuited by the undulations here.
Also best performances seem to be reserved for when running back home in Ireland.
If this race was in Ireland on a flat track he would be strongly fancied, but it isn’t and he is another lay in the contest.
Youmzain
Earned a reputation for being a bridesmaid after being placed in so many Group One contests.
Finally managed to get his head in front at St Cloud last June. However has returned to normal running since.
Twice runner-up in the Arc and second in this contest last year.
It would raise the roof if he were to win but you are putting a lot a faith into your investment should you choose to back him.
Look Here
Winner of last years Oaks so no doubts as to her ability to act on the track, nor her class.
Has not been seen on course since finishing third in the St Leger, so has a long layoff to overcome and she needed here comeback run last season.
It would be no great shock if she was to win the contest, but like Youmzain you would be taking a chance.
Verdict
If I was making a decision purely on emotion I would dearly love to see Youmzain take this contest and, should he win, nobody will be cheering him on more than me.
However at 5/2 and taking into account his overall Group One record I cannot put him up as the winner.
If Look Here can overcome the layoff she could take this for the girls.
However looking at the prices on offer I do like the 13/2 quoted for Duncan. OK he is stepping up in class but he is an improver and well worth a chance.
1 – Duncan
2 – Youmzain
3 – Look Here
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The Investec Challenge (Heritage Handicap)
Lake Poet is a course specialist and his chances in this race will receive a significant boost if Duncan does well in the Coronation Cup as he finished runner-up to Duncan in the handicap here in April. Obviously his price will reflect that run and better value can be found elsewhere.
Bottom weight Manshoor is a progressive type from a shrewd yard and has the added benefit of William Buick on board and at a very tempting 14/1 is one for the short list.
Sweet Lightning was also in Duncan's race in April and did not have much luck in running. He was running on well in the closing stages and that makes one ask if he is happier over the mile and a half, rather than today's mile and a quarter?
Seeking The Buck has gone up 7lbs in the weights after winning on his seasonal debut.
Verdict: Lake Poet looks to be the obvious choice but at cramped odds. For a better value option Manshoor (each way) is a better betting prospect.
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The Investec Oaks (Group 1)
High Heeled
Has reasonable form and hails from a stable who know what they are doing.
Was fourth to Sariska in the Musidora and York, her performance being blamed on the firm ground.
However with the going currently Good, Good to Firm in places and with no rain forecast she could be in trouble again at Epsom and is best ignored.
Midday
Runner-up to Debussy in the Blue Riband Trial here in April and she is trained by henry Cecil, who has won this race eight times.
Her last win was in the Lingfield Oaks Trial which has produced the Oaks winner three times in recent years.
Her three-year-old form is certainly better than last years and she is a contender you would ignore at your peril.
Nashmiah
non-runner
Oh Goodness Me
Third in the Irish 2000 Guineas on her latest start, running on really well in the heavy going.
There should be no question marks concerning her stamina, however the Irish 1000 Guineas was a weak renewal and the going at Epsom will be completely different.
Others preferred.
Perfect Truth
The only O’Brien contender in the fillies’ classic.
Finally made it to the winners enclosure when beating Phillipina in the Cheshire Oaks, setting a course record in the process.
However the way Phillipina was running on at the end suggests she has the ability to reverse the form and that O’Brien will not be claiming Oaks glory.
Phillipina
Still a maiden but her performance at the end of the Cheshire Oaks was eye catching and good enough to suggest she will reverse the form with a conqueror that day, Perfect Truth.
However she is still a maiden and that does not augur well, especially when considering she is up against some class fillies in this contest.
She is improving but whether she has sufficient improvement to take this one is very much open to question.
Rainbow View
Unbeaten as a two-year-old she went into the 1000 Guineas with high hopes of maintaining her unbeaten record. In the end she only came home fifth, seemingly lacking pace at a crucial point in the race. However she was staying on well in enough in the closing stages to suggest she needs further.
Her trainer said the fast ground at Newmarket was against her, even though she has winning form on good to firm as a juvenile.
If she runs to her form of last year she will be a serious contender but you have to take it on trust she is as good.
Sariska
Unexposed, she has done little wrong in her runs to date.
Her last outing, taking the Musidora at York, was most impressive, showing a great turn of foot in the closing stages – suggesting a mile and a half is well within her range.
She still has plenty of scope for improvement and her York win underlined her ability to act on both firm and soft surfaces.
The Miniver Rose
The sort of filly who has made quiet progress without setting the world alight.
Was disappointing when fourth in the Pretty Polly at Newmarket before going on to come second in Newbury’s Oaks trial.
Unlikely to win this race she is, however, the sort who could grab a place at a tidy price.
Three Moons
non-runner
Tottie
Six and three-quarter lengths third to Midday in the Lingfield Oaks trial, there is nothing at all to suggest she can reverse that form.
One aspect in her favour is she has won at Brighton, which shows she can handle an undulating track like Epsom.
Wadaat
Something of an enigma, the filly is highly thought of by her trainer.
Runner-up in the Italian Oaks last time out the run previously she ran an absolute stinker in the Lingfield Oaks Trial. A run so bad even the trainer cannot offer an explanation.
Too much of a risk to back.
Verdict
It is hard to look beyond Midday and Sariska – but in which order. Difficult to say so I am going to let my heart rule my head and opt for a ninth Cecil win.
1 – Midday
2 – Sariska
3 – The Minerva Rose
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The Investec Surrey Stakes (listed)
This race revolves around the Irish raider Croisultan for whom connections have been aiming at this race for some time.
He has lost nothing in defeat in some decent races and has been looking as though he is crying out for the step up to seven furlongs.
However he does face some decent opposition.
Nasri is another who lost nothing in defeat, when coming second at Newmarket last time out and is the highest rated runner in the contest.
Will be sent off favourite and must have a favourites chance.
A potential fly in any ointment will be Mastoora, whose only run to date was a winning performance at Folkestone. It didn’t beat much that day but still went into many notebooks with an impressive attitude. This represents a big step up in class but connections know the time of day and he should not be dismissed lightly.
Khor Dubai is under the Godolphin cloud and can be ignored.
Mishrif was a progressive two-year-old but performances this season suggest he has not trained on.
Verdict: A tricky contest to call but I am going to side with the Irish raider Croisultan
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The Investec Opportunity Stakes (Handicap)
A nightmare of a handicap to end proceedings on day one.
Cases can be made for many of the runners but we are going to plump for Ed Dunlop’s Satwa Laird. Unpenalised for a decent fourth at York’s Dante meeting he is a consistent performer who is sure to be involved in the shake-up. |