Epsom 2008 - Saturday
4.00pm The Vodafone Derby Stakes (Group One) 1m 4f 10yds
I have seen more Derby's than I care to remember.
Although not too much strength in depth there is no outstanding runner this season.
ALAN DEVONSHIRE (Mark Tompkins)
The only question with this runner is why is he bothering to run?
Has struggled to so anything decent at a lower grade, so why connections think he has any chance in the Derby is beyond me.
His odds of 200/1 say it all.
ALESSANDRO VOLTA (Aidan O’Brien IRE)
Winner of the Lingfield Derby trial but that was arguably the weakest of all the trials.
The proximity of the stable’s second string King Of Rome did little to boost the form
Others preferred.
BASHKIROV Derrick (Aidan O’Brien IRE)
All the indications are this is the Ballydoyle pacemaker and that is reflected in his 150/1 price.
BOUGUEREAU (Peter Chapple-Hyam)
Running more to please the owners than having any real chance.
Has already failed to win one Derby this season (the Italian) if he cannot win that one how can he win the big one?
BRONZE CANNON (USA) (John Gosden)
Could well be the dark horse in the race.
He has previously beaten Doctor Freemantle at level weights.
Is taking a steep step up in class but John Gosden knows the time of day and at 33/1 looks to be a decent each way bet.
CASUAL CONQUEST (Dermot Weld IRE) SUPPLEMENTED
Supplemented after winning the Derrinstown at Leopardstown. This was arguably the strongest of this years trials.
The horse clearly has scope for improvement and is potentially a superstar in the making.
My biggest concern is how he will cope with the hustle and bustle of The Derby which is usually a very rough race.
I also think there is little value with the beast price 7/2 on offer.
Of course come 4:10 on Saturday the 7/2 could look to have been very generous.
In summary if he can cope with the way the race is run he should win.
CURTAIN CALL (FR) (Luca Cumani)
Has done little wrong but what has he beaten, with only one really good performance in the bag?
His Nottingham win was an OK performance but very little in terms of form.
He split New Approach and Henrythenavigator in the Futurity.
He won easily over 10f but was never under any pressure. The comments applied to Casual Conquest about the pressure apply equally to Curtain Call. I also have a concern about him getting the 12f at Epsom
DOCTOR FREEMANTLE (Sir Michael Stoute) SUPPLEMENTED
I think he is over priced at 10/1.
Won impressively at Chester despite hitting problems in running showing an impressive turn of foot.
The trip will not be any problem and the colt has plenty of scope for improvement.
FROZEN FIRE (GER) (Aidan O’Brien IRE)
A precocious colt he looks to have the pedigree to win over 12f.
However he is also a very temperamental colt an that could work against him at Epsom.
The sort of horse who could win but you would be putting a great deal of faith in his temperament if you backed him.
KANDAHAR RUN (Henry Cecil )
Tipped by many professionals as the outsider to watch. This represents a major step up in class as Henry Cecil bids for his fifth Derby.
Very good reports emerging from home but will have to run the race of his life to take this classic.
KING OF ROME (IRE) (Aidan O’Brien IRE)
By no stretch of the imagination the stables first string.
Has never managed to beat stable mate Alessandro Volta and there is no reason why he should today.
MAIDSTONE MIXTURE (FR) (Richard Chotard FR )
Absolutely no chance whatsoever and the BHA should do something to stop no hopers like this from participating in races like the Derby.
Is a vanity run just to boot the ego of his owner.
The odds of 1000/1 are far too short. Will only win if there are seventeen non-runners.
NEW APPROACH (IRE) (Jim Bolger IRE)
The most controversial runner in this year’s race after the trainer had given the strongest possible indications that his charge would not be running in the race.
Although bred to stay the 12f of the Derby, his style of running indicates he will not get the trip.
Has shown signs of temperament in the past.
It will leave a bitter tase in the mouth with punters if he does win, but I thik things will be tasting sweet on Saturday.
RIO DE LA PLATA (USA) (Saeed bin Suroor )
Looks to be a default entry for Godolphin. Will be astounding if he gets the mile and a half.
Had Frankie not have won the Derby last year you can bet your bottom dollar he would not be riding this one on Saturday.
RIVER PROUD (Paul Cole) SUPPLEMENTED
Only win came in a Group 3 at Newmarket. Yet to run further than a mile and although breeding suggests he should get the Derby trip.
Has shown signs of temperament, especially in the stalls, and that must be a worry.
Others preferred.
TAJAAWEED (USA) (Sir Michael Stoute )
Richard Hills is still looking for his first Derby win(brother Michael was victorious on Shaamit in 1996) and this could be his best chance.
An impressive winner of the Dee Stakes at Chester at a course that did not suit his physique. The form of the race has been enhanced since. Has also won with give.
Clearly this is Sir Michael Stoute’s first string and at a best priced 15/2 is not a bad price.
TARTAN BEARER (IRE) (Sir Michael Stoute)
Winner of the Dante at York, there are however questions concerning the form of this years renewal.
Is actually a shorter price that stable companion Tajaaweed which does not make sense to me.
I wouldn’t eat my hat if he did win however I think others have better chances.
WASHINGTON IRVING (IRE) (Aidan O’Brien IRE)
Was touted at a strong contended. However went down 6 lengths to Casual Conquest in the Derrinstown and there is nothing to suggest he can reverse the form at Wednesday, 4 June, 2008 9:45
last updated Tuesday, 3 June, 2008 14:35