Cheltenham 2010 - Wednesday
1:30 National Hunt Steeplechase Challenge Cup
If the Cross Country is an Enda Bolger benefit then this race is a Jonjo O’Neill / JP McManus benefit. O’Neill has trained four of the last eight winners and had last years contender not been a non-stayer it would surely have been five.
By contrast Paul Nicholls has a terrible record in the contest.
Experience over fences is important, even though it is a novices’ chase, only one of the last seven winners had fewer than three runs over timber.
Five and six year olds have an appalling record with a 5% success rate.
This is another race where the favourites have an appalling record.
The qualifier, based on the above, would be Synchronised, available at a tasty 10/1.
The favourites curse is settled on Any Currency.
The trouble with both Synchronised and Any Currency, indeed the top five in the betting, is they are not guaranteed to get the four miles and have given little signs of getting the distance.
There is an O’Neill runner, although not owned by McManus, who looks as though four miles may be within his compass, is Theatrical Moment, available at a general 12/1. A progressive sort he has no trouble getting three miles and has won with enough in hand to suggest four will be OK.
2:05 Neptune Investment Management Novices' Hurdle
A race where the market is a good guide with the top six in the betting having a 94% strike rate and the favourite having a 50% strike rate in the last dozen years.
Although a novices’ contest most winners have at least three runs, usually in graded company.
This is also a race which favours runners who have taken the bumper route as oppose to being ex-flat horses.
This is one of the races which tends to go across the Irish Sea and Willie Mullins, winner of the last two renewals, will be looking for the hat-trick.
Having said that his main hope, Quel Esprit, is only fourth best in the market at a best priced 12/1, due in part to a surprise odds-on defeat at Leopardstown last time out.
The clear favourite at an almost universal 3/1 is another Irish raider, Dermot Weld’s son of Giants Causeway, Rite Of Passage. A progressive sort who has managed to win most of his races with consummate ease.
Although he is top of the current crop of Festival trainers, Nicky Henderson has a terrible (0-20) record in this contest. That stat aside he does have two of the top six in the betting with Finians Rainbow and Quantitativeeasing. Henderson has hinted the former will be more likely to be running in this contest.
Finians Rainbow’s only defeat came in the Challow at Newbury when, arguably, he was unsuited by the heavy ground.
His vanquisher that day, Reve de Sivola, also holds an entry in this race but, turning back to the dreaded stats, Challow winners have a 0-12 record here.
Recommendation: 2pts e/w Finians Rainbow (15/2 Paddy Power & William Hill)
2:40 Royal and Sun Alliance Chase
This is a notoriously difficult race to win and although favourites have a good record a long priced outsider could just as well take the contest.
Another contest where experience seems to count with most winners having three runs over fences under their belt.
This is also a race where age can be a factor with seven and eight year olds dominating.
Due to it being a hard race it is often too much for inexperienced six-year-olds. Although Star De Mohaison did take the contest as a five-year-old.
Nicky Henderson is in the enviable position of having the top two in the betting with Punchestowns and Long Run.
Henderson describes the duo as the two best horses he has trained, saying they are both future Gold Cup contenders.
If the ground should be heavy then Long Run will run in the Arkle instead.
Diamond Harry has been a talking horse, however his jumping was sketchy when winning at Newbury last time out and he will not be able to take such liberties with the Cheltenham fences.
Jumping is also a slight concern for Punchestowns, generally a good jumper he did well to recover from a nasty mistake when winning at Sandown last time out and he will not be able to afford such a mistake here.
The chances are one of the Henderson horses will win. If he stays on his feet then Punchestowns should win and Long Run will follow him home. If not then Long Run will benefit.
Looking for something at a longer price, if we forgive his last race, when he was pulled up after being hampered early in the race, then Seven Is My Number is overpriced at 50/1 and may be worth a small each-way play.
Recommendations:-
3pts win Punchestowns (3/1 generally available)
1pt e/e Seven Is My Number (501/ generally available)
3:20 Seasons Holidays Queen Mother Champion Chase
Twist Magic seems to be a reformed character this season, however he will have to do something really special to deny Master Minded his hat trick in this race.
His first victory, a day late after the 2008 Wednesday abandonment, was one of the most spectacular performances seen at Cheltenham where he absolutely slaughtered Voy Por Ustedes by an almost unbelievable 19 lengths.
Last year he had to work a little bit harder for victory, having said that he wasn’t really extended.
There is not really much point in writing too much more in advance of this contest.
For my money Master Minded is the banker of the 2010 festival, although at odds-on not an investment.
4:00 Coral Cup Hurdle
Invariably attracting something close to a maximum field of 28 this is , statistically, one of the easier handicaps to unravel.
Six of the past seven winners have won last time out and also horses coming here fresh or even on seasonal debut have done well.
It is also interesting to note that no horse rated higher than 147 has ever won this contest.
Now the 148+ stat will actually rule out the current favourite Beshabar, who has been put in the contest at 149.
It also rules out one of my fancies, Trenchant, also on 149. The handicapper has been kind to Trenchant though choosing not to raise him for his Fontwell victory last Sunday. Although he raised the runner-up in the contest Souffleur, who is on a rating of 151 for this contest.
Trenchant and Beshabar both fulfil the last time out criteria.
If any horse absolutely fits the criteria for this contest then it must be Alan King’s Lake Legend. A winner last time out, has not run for 81 days and is rated 145. He was pulled up first time out this season but has since gone on to win his next two races.
Paul Hobbs Wishful Thinking will be making his handicap bow in this race and it has to be said the handicapper has done him no favours. However he is a progressive sort and there is no reason why he could not, at least, run into a place.
Sir Harry Ormesher’s form only shows one win from three this season, however it does not tell the true story as he was leading and looking the likely winner when a race was Doncaster was voided two out due to a stricken horse blocking the entry to the run-in.
Recommendation: 3pts e/w Lake Legend (14/1 generally available)
4:40 Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle
The handicappers have admitted this has been a nightmare race to assess with lost meetings and most of the known form being on soft going.
The race has only been going five years so no firm stats to consider, although this is another contest where last time out winners have a good record.
In addition horses in the top third of the handicap have a good record in this contest.
An interesting betting stat is single figure priced horses have an appalling record with only two finishing in the first seven places in all five runnings of the contest.
It is, therefore, unfortunate the runner I do fancy is currently single figures in the betting. Notus De La Tour is a French import who looks to have a progressive CV. The four year old has only had one race for David Pipe and was an impressive 6l winner of a novices contest at Plumpton. The only fly in the ointment is all his runs have been on very testing ground. However on the plus side the handicapper looks to have given him a very good weight.
Jonjo O’Neill’s Open Day is another progressive sort, winning his last two outings. The negative for him is on his one Cheltenham appearance, in a bumper on New Years Day, he quickly tired in the final two furlongs.
Barizan is an exposed sort and was looking for a five timer when going down 9 lengths to Pistolet Noir here at Cheltenham in November. However that day he was giving 8lbs to his opponent, today he will be carrying 1lb less so is weighted to have every chance of reversing the form.
Recommendations:-
3pts e/w Notus De La Tour (8/1 generally available)
1pt e/e Barizan (25/1 Bet 365)
5:15 Weatherbys Champion Bumper
The bumper is a stats rich contest, some of which hardly need repeating.
The Irish have an amazing record in this contest, winning 14 of the seventeen runnings and of the 14 winners Willie Mullins has saddled six of them.
An even stronger stat is all but two of the seventeen winners had won last time out.
Conversely French bred runners have an appalling record with none of the 23 qualifiers even being placed.
More interesting facts are that all but two of the winners had also won in fields of 14+ runners and only three of the seventeen winners were outside the top six in the betting.
Four-year-olds have a 0-51 record in the contest.
It is no surprise, therefore, that five of the top six in the betting are Irish trained, the one exception being Paul Nicholls Al Freof and he was originally Irish trained.
Al Freof was supported for this contest after an impressive win in a strong Bumper at Newbury on 13th February, finishing strongly in testing conditions. However he does have he French bred stat to contend with.
Two runners are contending for favouritism Dermot Weld’s Elegant Concorde and, yes you guessed, Willie Mullins Day Of A Lifetime.
Elegant Concorde will not run here if the ground becomes too soft. He impressed when winning a decent bumper at Leopardstown on Boxing Day, although it is interesting to note he was kept away from his rivals for most of the contest – that tactic may not be possible here.
Day Of A Lifetime only came into the reckoning here when coming home a facile winner at Fairyhouse on 20th February.
Hidden Universe is Dermot Weld’s “second string” a runner who prefers plenty of give. He will run if the ground goes against Elegant Concorde, he also has the negative stat of only being a four-year-old.
Edward O’Grady’s Shot From The Hip went into several notebooks when showing a good turn of foot to beat some decent sorts winning a bumper at Leopardstown on 28th February, emphasising the ability shown on debut at Clonmel.