Cheltenham 2010 - Tuesday

 

1:30 Supreme Novices Hurdle

The opening contest of the Festival “stars” last years Bumper winner Dunguib, many peoples idea of a Festival banker.

However if you are a follower of stats then favourites only have a 25% strike rate in the contest in recent years.

It also looks as though Irish layers Paddy Power are not too keen on his chances as they are offering a refund on all losing single bets on the race if Dunguib takes the contest.

In his favour the Irish do have a great record in this contest and also winners of both the Deloitte Hurdle and Royal Bond Novices’ Hurdle do well and Dunguib has won both emphatically this year.

However the killer stat is 12 of the last 13 winners won their previous outing.

Of course the very short price about Dunguib offers betting opportunities elsewhere.

There are currently three  other contenders who arrive with unbeaten records Get me Out Of Here, Oscar Whiskey and Peddlers Cross and of the three I think Oscar Whiskey rates good value at 12/1.

Menorah has the potential to win the contest but will need to improve his jumping although the 12/1 is a bit skinny.

Recommendation: 2pts e/w Oscar Whiskey (12/1 generally available) unplaced

2:05 Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Steeple Chase

The favourite has an appalling record in the contest, winning only twice in the last seventeen renewals.

However, apart from the favourite, fancied horses do tend to do well with only one winner starting greater than 11/1 in recent years.

This is also a race where hurdle form gets carried across and 90% of recent winners had a 142+ hurdle rating.

Captain Cee Bee looks as though he will be carrying the favourites hoodoo this season.

Sizing Europe looks to be a lively contender although the best priced 13/2 looks on the skinny side for me.

Osana was runner up to Sizing Europe last time they met but I fancy the O’Grady gelding to reverse the placings at a stat breaking 33/1 with VC Bet.  

Recommendation: 1pt e/w Osana (33/1 VC Bet, generally 25/1) placed

2:40 William Hill Trophy Handicap Steeple Chase

This contest will be previewed once the weights are announced

3:20 Smurfit Kappa Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy

The key stats for the opening championship race of the meeting are runners who are Irish trained, have run in the race before, have winning form at Cheltenham and who won last time out.

The last stat is an interesting one as it applies to 22 of the last 26 winners.    

It is also interesting to note the last 15 winners all had a previous run in the same calendar year.

It is also a bad race for outsiders with 90% of winners coming in the top half dozen in the betting.

Having said all the above stats are there to be broken and last years winner Punjabi broke most of them when winning at an overpriced 22/1.

This year he is a more realistic 8/1 although what is surprising is Zaynar is generally priced at 7/1. Now before his last run he was trading much shorter, however his run at Kelso was frankly appalling and he lost his unbeaten record.

That run can be viewed in one of two ways. Either the horse has a problem or the going was much worse than the official Soft reading from the course and the time, almost 30 seconds below standard, tends to bear this out.

I am prepared to give Zaynar the benefit of the doubt and the 8/1 from Paddy Power is very tempting.

In a very open contest Irish raiders Solwhit and Go Native  both have favourites chances.

Very interesting in the betting is Sublimity with layers having very differing opinions. SkyBet are as short as 14/1 whilst William Hill are 22’s, which is a good e/w price.

Recommendations:

3pt e/w Zaynar (8/1 Paddy Power) placed
1pt e/w Sublimity (22/1 William Hill) non-runner

 

4:00 Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Steeple Chase

An easy one to assess – just follow Enda Bolger and of his runners there is no point in looking any further than last years winner Garde Champetre, despite handicapper Phil Smith giving him 11lbs more to carry this year.

Last years runner-up L'Ami has been raised 5lbs and will be the one to benefit should the extra 11lbs prove to be too much.

Recommendation: 4pts win Garde Champetre (2/1 Paddy Power) unplaced

4:40 David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle Race

This being only the third running of the race there are clearly no stats to guide punters.

One factor to bear in mind is that being a Class 2 contest there is a penalty structure in place for the contest which means the top Mares will have to carry a 5lb penalty and the penalty has been enough to stop horses in the first two runnings.

The race will also attract a fair share of novices as trainers will see this race as being easier pickings than some of the classier contests.

One of the leading fancies, Whiteoak, will be missing this year as she has now been retired following injury. Her “controversial” running in last years Champion Hurdle as opposed to this contest arguably handed the contest to Quevega last year.

Quevega returns this year, with the penalty, and it has to be said she has not particularly impressed in her two runs since last years victory (although in the first she was dropped back to two miles and she picked up an injury in the latter) and she has not been seen on the course since last May, although she did win first time out last season we have to take it on trust she is fully recovered.

If you take the betting at face value only Voler La Vedette poses any threat to Quevega. Her official rating has risen 34lbs between May and December last year. There have been questions raised about her stamina but she has an electrifying turn of foot and she won an easy 2m 4f event at Leopardstown in December. She was not challenged in that race and one was left with the impression it was a fishing expedition to see if she could cope with the 2½ miles.

She missed her next planned engagement in the Irish Champion Hurdle due to a pulled muscle, that would have given a better indication of her ability over 2½ in a testing race.

The race should be between these two and it could well turn into a tactical affair with Quevega trying to draw the sting from  Voler La Vedette’s finishing speed.

If the ground is soft then I would side with Quevega retaining her crown, if not then Voler La Vedette could use her turn of foot to her advantage.

However there is always the possibility of an upset and, as I said, some useful novices are being aimed at this race.

Nicky Henderson’s Candy Creek caught the eye at last years Aintree Mares’ Bumper and since then she has moved to the Henderson yard. She is a progressive two from three this season. Her only defeat coming in very testing conditions.  However it does look as though the Martin Pipe may well be her first preference race.

Jessica Harrington has made no secret this contest has been the target for her novice No One Tells Me. She will need to improve further to take this contest but last time I was in Ireland the word was she is only a couple of pounds behind Voler La Vedette. The best prices have now gone for this mare but an each way investment at 8/1 would not be a complete shot in the dark.

Recommendations:
2pts win Voler La Vedette (11/4 Paddy Power) placed
1pt e/w No One Tells Me (10/1 Paddy Power) unplaced