Cheltenham 2010 - Thursday

1:05 Jewson Novices' Handicap Chase

Another race with little stats to go on although four of the five runnings have been taken by seven-year-olds.

The contest also seems to be suited to improving types with all five previous winners having lost their first two races over the larger obstacles. Conversely all five winners had finished first or second in their previous start.

Of course stats are not cast in stone and I quite fancy a runner who only fits one of the positives, namely Carole’s Legacy from the Nicky Henderson yard. More than handy over hurdles she had handled the switch to the larger obstacles with aplomb and she is rated 9lbs better over fences.  The handicapper has not done her too many favours, however I think she can still improve and the 16/1 on offer is attractive.

Another the handicapper has taken no chances with is Paul Nicholls Take The Breeze, given top weight of 11-10 and although progressive I think he actually regressed in is last run, when he did finally get his head in front.

But for every Ying there is a Yang and the handicapper has been kinder to another Nicholls runner, Rivaliste. Two out of three over the big obstacles the defeat came last time out, going down a nose in the final stride, when giving almost a stone to French raider Doctor Pat. It could be argued Rivaliste has been thrown in here, however that is, of course, reflected in the betting where he is a best priced 8/1 in what is a very open handicap.

Vying for favouritism is Sunnyhillboy from the McManus / O’Neill combo. A progressive sort he has not yet shown the same ability as over hurdles. However coming from a gambling owner it could well be the case he has been laid out for this contest and it would be no surprise to see him actually go off favourite (he is already joint-favourite in one book), although he still generally available at 10/1.

Another edging favouritism comes from yet another yard known for the odd gamble. Ferdy Murphy’s The Hollinwell caught the eye when winning at Warwick the end of January, although the handicapper has been a little more wary with his rating.

With so many improving sorts and with more than one being “laid out” for this race, it is not a race to become dogmatic about.

The betting could well be spot on and I would not be in the least surprised if Sunnyhillboy sluiced up, but I will take a chance at some value.

Recommendation:  2pts e/w Carole’s Legacy (16/1 William Hill and Paddy Power)

2:05 Pertemps Final (Handicap Hurdle)

This race is the handicappers pride and joy and a hard race to crack.

In the past 13 runnings there have been as many 50/1 winners as there have winning favourites. (two of each).

One, on the face of it, interesting  stat is only one horse has won from out of the handicap since 1974. This stat is skewed by the fact most years there are no runners out of the handicap, however that may not be the case this year with only 30 of the 85 entries currently in the handicap. Having said that if the top weight, Fair Along, comes out another 22 runners will come into the handicap.

Last years winner Kayf Aramis has been really punished by the handicapper, having to carry an additional 20lbs this season.

Despite the apparent tightness of the contest a clear favourite has emerged in the markets.
Paul Nicholls Alfie Sherrin is trading a best priced 6/1, whilst his nearest market rival is around the 10/1 mark. Winner of the totescoop6 Hurdle at Newbury last time out he came back from defeat over an, arguably, inadequate 2½ miles at Chepstow on his previous run.

At Newbury he beat Triggerman by 2¾ lengths, conceding 7lbs. In this contest he is currently giving the runner-up 10lbs, which will become a stone if the weights rise. On that basis Triggerman looks an interesting bet to turn the tables at 16/1.

Recommendation: 2pts e/w Triggerman (16/1 William Hill)  

2:40 Ryanair Chase

This is a difficult race to previews as, being an intermediate distance, running plans are not confirmed until late in the day and therefore it is best to keep ones betting powder dry until the bookmakers go “no runner, no bet” as it is so very easy to have ante post bets scuppered by late changes of plan.

Another race with little history to develop any concrete stats, however the stats that are emerging do seem to be fairly consistent.

All five winners of the contest have previous winning form at Cheltenham.

Another “strong” factor is the longest priced winner thus far has been 6/1, so certainly a contest for the fancied runners.

Two of the winners have been runners-up in the race the previous season.
Currently there are only three runners who fall into the 6/1 or less category.

Heading the betting, just, is Paul Nicholls Poquelin who fits the statistical bill perfectly, however this has not gone unnoticed by layers and punters and there is little value in his current 9/2 odds. Beaten by Tranquil Sea in the Paddy Power, the heavy going that day was definitely against Poquelin that day.

Poquelin was very in and out last season but has certainly improved for being upped in trip this year.

Tranquil Sea, not surprisingly, is vying for favouritism. Edward O’Grady’s 8-year-old is another to have improved this season and he was an impressive winner of the Paddy Power. He certainly likes give in the ground and a slight question mark remains as to whether he can be as effective in less testing conditions. If so an interesting duel is in prospect with Poquelin.

After attempting the “big one” last year The Queen’s Barbers Shop comes here in a contest which should suit him. The distance more suitable than the Gold Cup and the opposition not so classy. Some have questioned his resolution but this presents his best chance ever to show he has the wherewithal to take a big race. He is certainly my pick of the first three in the betting but at a best priced 6/1 he represents poor value.

They say the quickest way to the poorhouse when it comes to betting is to allow your heart to rule your head.   I have to say I do have a big soft spot for Alan King’s Voy Por Ustedes, runner up to Imperial Commander last year.

As usual he started the season badly, he never runs well first time out. More worrying is his run last time out at Newbury. Granted the 2m 1f is far too short for him nowadays, however his usually impeccable jumping deteriorated as the race progressed. In his favour he is a spring horse and he loves running here at the festival.  I am prepared to take the risk that his poor jumping was just a minor glitch and am more than happy to back him at the 16/1 currently available.

Recommendation: 2pts e/e Voy Por Ustedes (16/1 generally available)

 

3:20 Ladbrokes World Hurdle

This race is fast overtaking the Champion Hurdle in producing the classiest hurdler at the festival.

The Cleeve Hurdle at the January Trials day has become a good indicator, with the first or second winning this one four times in the last decade. On that basis this years qualifiers would be Tidal Bay and Time For Rupert.

French bred horses have a good record winning 50% of the last eight renewals, whilst the Irish have not taken the prize since 1995 and they have nothing even remotely looking like reversing the trend this year.

No five-year-old has ever won the race .

If you fancy Tidal Bay for the Cleeve / World double then he is a best priced 8/1.

However we have a very short priced favourite in Big Buck’s, winner of the race last year and this in a race where multiple winners abound.

Many peoples idea of a Festival banker he flirted with chasing back in 2008, however conditions soon realised he is something special when it comes to staying hurdling contests.

To be honest there is nothing running here who can come anywhere to challenging and the only way I can see him not winning is if something untoward were to happen.

Even at odds-on he is worth backing as it should (famous last words) be money for nothing.

Tidal Bay should be good for a place and another with each-way claims is Katchit who seems to have relished the step up in distance this season and the 33/1 on offer is a generous each way bet.

Recommendation: 10pts Win Big Buck’s (8/13 generally available)

 

4:00 Byrn Group Plate Handicap Steeple Chase

A favourites and punters graveyard, with the last winning favourite being back in 1999, every subsequent winner being in double figures.

60% of recent winners are French bred and only two of the last 22 winners were rated above 141.

The Irish have not claimed this contest since 1951.

Venetia Williams and Nicky Henderson have both won twice in the past five years.

It will be no surprise to know this is an open betting heat, currently around 10/1 the field.

Looking at the declared runners cases can be made for many of them.

Last years winner Something Wells has done absolutely nothing since last years victory and the stables best chance must be in the shape of Green Belt Elite, although running over a mile in chases this season he does have winning hurdle form over 2½ miles. Of the other Williams horses, Stan, seems to be past his best but Atouchbetweenacara could be a handicap snip.

Atouchbetweenacara won over course and distance last April and although well higher than his mark that day he has been dropping down the handicap this year and could take a hand in proceedings. Paddy Power and The Tote have a strong view on his prospects, only going 16/1, whilst he is available at 33/1 elsewhere.

Nicky Henderson has three entries although only two look likely to make the cut. Of the pair Aigle D’Or looks the better although it does not scream out as a potential winner.          

Recommendation: 1pt e/w Atouchbetweenacara (33/1 generally available)

4:40 Fulke Walwyn and Kim Muir Challenege Cup Handicap Steeple Chase

Arguably the lowest quality race of the festival, featuring average handicappers ridden by amateur riders.

This is the sort of contest which can equally deliver a long priced winner as a winning favourite and a race where the ability of the rider is as significant as the ability of the horse.

There are some stats to consider though. The Irish have not taken the contest for 27 years. Five of the last six winners were rated 121-128 and only 4-30 winners are seven-years-old or younger.

Scots Dragoon was a beaten favourite last time out, although he did hang left in the latter stages, suggesting he may prefer a left handed track.

Ballabrigs is currently the favourite, although he has the welter burden of top weight and the handicapper has really hammered him for his 10l win at Ayr on 13th February, having raised him an eye watering 10lbs.

If you are prepared to ignore his last run at Sandown then Shillingstone from the Alner’s yard must come into the reckoning. He came into that contest with a 12lb hike from the handicapper and has been given a 1lb respite here. The other factor is the Sandown run was on soft ground and the going at The Festival will be better suited. This is reflected in the betting where he is trading around the 10/1 mark.

Poker De Sivola's career has a strange profile with his races this year being a Class 3 3m Handicap (2nd), a Listed 3m handicap (9th, then the 4m Borders National (5th) then finally a 3¼ mile Novices’ Chase (1st). Now I am not sure what to make of the campaign, do connections seriously not know whet to do with the horse or to they have a “grand plan” for some kind of touch – not unknown.

He does tick most of the right boxes, the only negative being he is a seven-year-old and at 20/1 he could be a good price to land a touch.

In truth we have only looked at a few runners here. Cases could be made for any one of a dozen runners and it is the sort of race where Granny’s hat pin may have as much chance of finding the winner.

Recommendation: 2pt e/w Poker De Sivola (20/1 generally available)