Cheltenham 2010 - Friday

1:30 JCB Triumph Hurdle

This years Triumph is actually very disappointing and is certainly not up to its usual standard.

Being a long established race there are plenty of stats to sink ones teeth into.
14 of the last 16 winners were winners last time out and it is a race which favours ex-flat horses. Only one of the last dozen winners was rated below 80 on the flat and of the last twelve winners who had flat experience all had experience at 1m 4f plus.

This is not a race for the Irish with only four placed horses from 42 runners in the last seven years.

The final interesting stat is only three of the last twenty winners have had less than three outings over timber before their Triumph win.

The betting has been thrown wide open with the defection of Mille Chief, who looked a class above the others and would have been a worthy favourite.

Oddly enough, considering their poor record, there is now an Irish favourite in the shape of Edward O’Grady’s Alaivan. A well bred type and the horse in this race with, by far, the best flat form, having been rated 109. The one fly in the ointment is his second last race where he was beaten at long odds-on by Carlito Brigante, who is due to re-oppose in this contest. There is no obvious explanation for his poor show that day, although he did return to winning form next time out at Fairyhouse.

Carlito Brigante was no great shakes on the Flat, only being rated 70. However  he has improved steadily over timber.

However neither Alaivan nor Carlito Brigante are any value in the betting.

For a longer priced fancy I quite like Nick Williams Me Voici. The four-year-old is another who has made some eye-catching progress, disposing of some handy looking rivals along the way.  Currently priced around the 20/1 mark he looks a nice each-way investment.

Recommendation: 2pts e/w Me Voici (20/1 generally available)    

2:05 Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle

No really firm statistics for this contest.

The Irish have a reasonable, but not outstanding, record.

This is one of the contests where the winner of the Imperial Cup turns up to have a crack at the Sandown / Cheltenham bonus.

Therefore if the winner of the previous Saturday’s Imperial Cup does turn up here, it should not be ignored.

Five year olds tend to do well in this contest.

Aather was runner-up here on trials day and arguably he hit the front too soon before idling in front. Being held up a little longer may help his chances this time.

Charlie Egerton’s Dr Livingstone looked a progressive type before pulling up last time out at Kempton. If that run is ignored, and no satisfactory explanation has been given for the poor run, then he has a chance.

William Hogarth is a frustrating sort who seems unable or unwilling to get his head in front.

This represents a step up in class for Donald McCains Inventor, however he is another progressive sort, getting his head in front last time out at Musselburgh. He is a runner which certainly likes the word Good in the going description and is one to watch should the ground dry out.

Get Me Out Of Here is unbeaten and a nice looking sort, however he has been hammered by the handicapper with a rating 15lbs higher than when he last ran at Newbury. Had the hike not been so high he would be very much on the shortlist.

Tito Bustillo looks to be the sort who wants plenty of cut in the ground and is one to be considered should the going turn soft.

Eradicate is another been done no favours by the handicap, having been raised 8lbs for his Musselburgh win. Not as harshly treated as Get Me Out Of Here however he will have to show significant improvement to defy the hike.

A very open contest and one which is probably best to watch rather than invest in.

2:40 Albert Barlett Novices' Hurdle

This 3m contest is a real test of stamina for the novices and it helps to look for proven stayers.

There have only been five runnings of the contest  but it has already become clear staying experience is vital with 12 of the 15 win and placed horses having experience over 3 miles. Additionally 14 of the 15 had come first or second last time out.

All the previous winners have been towards the top of the betting.

For me it is hard to look past the favourite Tell Massini. Three miles holds no fear for him, he has won on the course and is a very progressive type.

The best price 9/2 may be skinny in such a contest but it is a fair reflection of his chances.

Restless Harry looks as though he is crying out for three miles, he also has winning course form. The one worry is his front running style may set him up to be shot at.

Shinrock Paddy looks to be one of the best of the Irish challengers and although he has had a training setback he is another who looks as though he is crying out for three miles. He has three mile winning form in the pointing sphere.  

The other top Irish challenger comes from the Willie Mullins yard. Unbeaten and unexposed he comfortably won  a 2¾ contest at Limerick last December. The way he was running-on at the end of the race indicates the three miles will be within his compass.

Recommendation: 5pts win Tell Massini (9/2 Paddy Power, Boylesports, BetFred)   

3:20 Totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase

All being well this be round three of the Kauto Star v Denman battle with the score tantalisingly poised at 1-1.

Hopefully both will come to Cheltenham at peak fitness and they will be turning for home together for an epic battle up the hill.

There is no need to go through their various achievements. What is clear is the two stablemates are very different horses and it is that difference that adds spice to the battle.

If Kauto Star goes on to win he will join the elite who have won the contest three or more times. Cottage Rake (1948-50), Arkle (1964-66) and Best Mate (2002-4).

Of course if he wins for a third time this year there will be those who say why can’t he go on to match the achievement of Golden Miller who won the contest five times from 1932 to 1936.

Well age may well stop him as he would be at least 12 years old when attempting a fifth win and only two other horses (What A Myth 1969 and Silver Frame 1951) have ever won at that age.

However that is looking too far ahead, we still have to have this years race.

It must also be stated it is unfair to concentrate on just Denman and Kauto Star in this years contest.

Remember Imperial Commander ran Kauto Star to within a nose at Haydock in November at level weights, although it also has  to be remembered Kauto Star comprehensively stuffed Imperial Commander in the King George at Kempton on Boxing Day.

Last year the late Exotic Dancer denied trainer Paul Nicholls a Gold Cup 1-2-3 and this year Nicholls could again have a good shout at taking all three places.

In addition to the big two he also has My Will, Taranis, Tricky Trickster and What A Friend entered, all of whom have place chances.

4:00 Christie's Foxhunters Steeple Chase

One of those races which divides opinion the Foxhunters is a race either loved or loathed by followers of the sport.

19 of the last 21 winners have come from a traditional pointing background as opposed to former National Hunt stars who are sent hunting in an attempt to clean up in Hunters’ Chases.

This is also a race which favours runners age 10 and under and last time out winners have a very good record.

4:40 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Hurdle (A Handicap)

Only the second running of this contest so absolutely no stats to go on.

There is a huge entry for this contest and it is quite likely the cut-off weight in the handicap will be around 11 stone, effectively turning it into a limited handicap.

This causes a major problem for the current favourite, the Philip Hobbs trained Qaspal, who has been given 10-10 by the handicapper.

The aim is to run him in the Imperial Cup at Sandown. Should he win that contest he will pick up a 5lb penalty which should get him into the contest. If he runs he will certainly be a worthy favourite.

It is no surprise to see David Pipe has multiple entries in the contest named in honour of his father. Of course a scattergun approach does not guarantee success, last year he saddled 7 of the 23 runners, yet could only manage third spot.

Last year the contest went the way of Nicky Henderson and he has two lively chances this year with Quantitiativeeasing  and Peveril.   
Quantitiativeeasing blotted his copy book last time out at Kempton when Phidippides stole a lead and McCoy on Quantitiativeeasing just failed to nab him on the line, although the cause was not helped by a mistake at the last.

Since losing his first bumper Peveril has remained unbeaten and has progressed with each run.  A likeable sort he has more attraction at 14/1 than Quantitiativeeasing’s 12/1, although I would not rule out a Henderson 1-2, again thwarting the Pipe challenge.

It is nice when small stables show the big boys how to do it at the big meetings and this, for me, is the one race where I can see such an “upset”. Karen McLintock’s Bygones Of Brid has made good progress this year. After winning at Newcastle the time before last he came up against a good one at Market Rasen next time out, left on the same mark by the handicapper an each-way bet at SkyBet’s 16/1 looks interesting.

Recommendations:
2pts e/w Quantitiativeeasing (12/1 Paddy Power, SkyBet and Boylesports)
3pts e/w Peveril (14/1 Paddy Power, SkyBet and Boylesports)
1pt e/w Bygones Of Brid (16/1 SkyBet)

5:10 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Steeplechase

The last race of the Festival is also the oldest race at the Festival.

One stat could well fall this year and that is 8 of eth last 9 winners have been rated between 129 and 134. This means we will need to look at the very bottom of the handicap as this years field seems to be very high quality.

The race seems to favour the under ten’s and 11 of the last 13 had already won over 2m 2f+.

30 of the last 35 winners have been priced 10/1 or less.

The betting has this as a Henderson / Nicholls contest with the former represented by French Opera and the latter by Free World.  

French Opera’s last two wins have been here at Cheltenham and he beat his market rival by 1¼l here in December. On that occasion he was getting 2lbs from Free World, in this contest he has to give 1lb, so the handicapper has weighted the race to reverse the placings. It also has to be said French Opera was all out to hold on for that victory.

Having said that Free World has not managed to get his head in front since November 2008. Always finding one or two better, invariably under hard driving. It has to be asked, does he have the resolution to win?  

Oiseau De Nuit is another who is thereabouts but, unlike Free World, he can get his head in front when he needs to. He also has course and distance form. He has been raised 3lbs for a recent 3¼ length defeat at the hands of Kalahari King.

Although Paul Nicholls Free World is shorter in the betting his Tataniano looks to have a better chance, although interestingly Ladbrokes, who are not usually wrong in these things, have Tataniano as second favourite at 9/1, interestingly William Hill go 12/1. He has only had the one run this season and that was a second in a small field contest, where he probably needed the run.