Cheltenham 2009 - Wednesday
1:30 National Hunt Steeplechase Challenge Cup
Jonjo O’Neil seems to farm this race, winning four of the last seven runnings and he looks to have a strong condender in the shape of Can’t Buy Time, who has been heavily backed in recent days. Although he has only run up to 3m 1f he looks the sort who will handle the four miles of this contest and is a relative youngster at seven. The trouble is the value has now gone and he is only available at around 7/1.
Another who looks as though he is crying out for the longer distance is Wichita Lineman but if, as looks likely, Can’t Buy Time runs in this one then he will more likely go to the William Hill.
However if he does line up then he should not be dismissed.
Big Fella Thanks is another who looks to be crying out for a longer trip? Third to Nacarat at Kempton observers thought he did not seem suited by either the flat track or dry conditions. With rain forecast for Cheltenham and the testing track he could well be in his element.
Niche Market was facing an impossible task in the Racing Post last time out and that run can best be ignored. His previous run, where he won from out of the handicap, was most impressive and he showed he had plenty of guts and determination. Like Can’t Buy Time he is a skinny price and does not represent great value.
In conclusion it is hard to look past Can’t Buy Time but the price is skinny, so only a small investment is suggested.
Recommendation
2pts win Can't Buy Time (7/1 Ladbrokes) Unplaced
2:05 Ballymore Properties Novices' Hurdle
It is still unclear which horses will be running here as an alternative for many will be the Supreme Novices’ on Tuesday.
Current favourite for the contest is the unbeaten Diamond Harry, trained by Nick Williams and who looks a decent prospect.
However the final race at Ascot on 17th January produced two live contenders in the shape of Kangaroo Court and Karabak. It was the former who was sent off the favourite at Ascot but the latter who caught the eye of many seasoned observers.
Karabak’s fourteen length demolition of the opposition impressed even the most hardened of observers, even moving one hard nosed hack to take up William Hill’s 12/1 for this race to a four figure sum.
Sadly the 12/1 is long gone with 8/1 being the price generally available.
Recommendation
4pts e/w Karabak (8/1 generally available) Placed
2:40 Royal and Sun Alliance Chase
A very open contest and a difficult one to predict at present and this is reflected in the very open betting.
What A Friend, a winner at the Boylesports meeting picked up a 14/1 quote on the day. He has since been well backed and is now as short as 6/1. Winner of both his starts over the larger obstacles he looks to be yet another good prospect at the Nicholls yard.
On his chasing debut he beat another debutant in the well regarded Carruthers. He later went on to win at Fakenham in a somewhat facile victory. He is open to improvement and could be a decent each way chance at 20/1.
Cooldine was only third in the Durkan Chase at Leopardstown over Christmas but that race was not run to suit him. Previously he was a convincing winner at Thurles. A very decent hurdler there is no reason why he should not be as good over the larger obstacles.
Gone To Lunch has done little wrong winning the last three of his five chase runs. He will need to step up to take this race, which may possibly be on the sharp side for him.
Breedsbreeze from, yep Paul Nicholls yard, is another who has done nothing wrong over the larger obstacles. Winning the Feltham last time out at Kempton on Boxing Day. Although like Gone To Lunch he will need to step up if he is to win this race. Indeed there is a strong chance he may swerve Cheltenham to go to Aintree as his trainer thinks he will prefer a flatter track.
At the current time this is a watching race.
3:20 Seasons Holidays Queen Mother Champion Chase
As the runners crossed the line at the end of last years Queen Mother Champion Chase there were many chins resting on chests as racegoers stood open mouthed, aghast at the performance they had just seen.
Five year old Master Minded had demolished a high class field, beating the 2007 winner Voy Por Ustedes by 19 lengths.
Next time out Voy Por turned the tables but that was over 2½ miles.
Back over two miles Master Minded looks to be unbeatable.
Recommendation
10pts win Master Minded (1/3 Generally available) Win
4:00 Coral Cup Hurdle
This is another race where the McManus factor comes into play and in recent days Aigle D’Or gas been heavily supported. However I am at a complete loss to understand why he is so well supported. He runs more good races than bad. His last run as Ascot in December was too bad to be true. Yet this time last year he was also a major flop in the Ballymore at the Festival.
There is no way I could bring myself to back him at as short as 6/1, indeed I would have to think long and hard before even thinking of backing him at 16/1.
Psycho is another enigmatic runner who has two ways of running and is another at a price (8/1) I would be reluctant to take. Certainly on a going day he is capable of taking this race and he acts at Cheltenham, being the runner up in a competitive County Hurdle last year.
Two runners at much better prices are the pair who fought out one of the best finishes of the season at Ascot on Valentines Day. It was the battle where Serabad just held off the bravest horse in training Lough Derg.
Lough Derg is by far the bravest battler in racing and my heart says I would love to see him win this race and I am sure were he to win he would receive the biggest cheer of the week. However I think he prefers a flatter track nowadays. Yes he has won over course and distance here in January but that was in a small field in a race where the tactics will be different than this race.
With his front running style he is there to be shot at and in a large field there is more chance of one being able to do just that. However for a place bet I would not put anyone off having a punt.
Serabad is proven on any going and has an extra two pound in hand with Lough Derg based on February’s run and I can see him finishing ahead of Lough Derg again.
Recommendations
2pts e/w Lough Derg (20/1 generally available) Unplaced
2pts e/w Serabad (22/1 Skybet) Unplaced
4:40 Fred Winter Juvenile Handicap Hurdle
This is a prize that could well go across the Irish Sea in the shape of Edward O’Grady’s Alexander Severus.
An impressive winner of his maiden at Leopardstown in January he faced a much bigger challenge next time out, coming home third but losing nothing in defeat.
Paul Nicholls Nictory Vote was an impressive winner at Taunton last time out, beating David Pipes Ronaldo de Mottes by 3¾ lengths. He is now four pounds worse off with the second yet Nictory Vote is trading at around 8/1 whilst Ronaldo de Mottes is trading at 12/1, a much more interesting prospect.
Others to consider are Amore Mio and, for me, the find of the season Trenchant. However the latter is now more likely to go for the Triumph. However wherever he runs at the Festival he should be backed.
Recommendations
3pts e/w Trenchant (12/1 Skybet and VC Bet – with a run) non runner
2pts e/w Ronaldo de Mottes (12/1 generally available) Unplaced
5:15 Weatherbys Champion Bumper
This is an event which is better to wait until nearer the time before getting too dogmatic about what will win.
The Irish have a particularly good record in this contest and Willie Mullins already has some lively contenders.
Quel Esprite won the Christmas Bumper at Leopardstown and headed towards the top of the betting as a result.
Meath All Star could also be an interesting contender from the same yard, an impressive bumper winner at Cork last year he has not been seen this season. The bookmakers have differing views with quotes ranging from 14’s to 20’s.
Philip Fenton’s Dunguib has won on two of his three bumper appearances and his beating of seven previous winners by 13 lengths or more caught the eye last time out at Leopardstown. Most layers have slashed his odds as a result and is currently sharing favouritism at the 7/1 mark.
The other joint favourite is the front running Quinola Des Obeaux, from where else but the Willie Mullins yard. Winner of both his bumpers his 15l victory at Cork last time was particularly eye catching.