Cheltenham 2009 - Tuesday
1:30 Supreme Novices Hurdle
The traditional curtain raiser to the festival is always a difficult race to unravel, even more so when running intentions are not clear and it is highly likely a number of those currently declared will be appearing elsewhere at the festival.
Cousin Vinny and Hurricane Fly currently head the betting.
Cousin Vinny, winner of last years bumper at the Festival is still lightly raced, winning five of his six starts, with his only defeat coming at the hands of Hurricane Fly at Fairyhouse last November.
Hurricane Fly is a year younger but has been more extensively campaigned having a flat career in France before beginning jumping, winning six of his fifteen starts and being placed in four others.
However his form over obstacles is four from five.
Of the pair I think Hurricane Fly will maintain the Fairyhouse form and can hold Cousin Vinny.
Of the longer priced runners the only one that really caught my eye so far is Alfie Flits, who put in a good performance at Haydock on 17th January. However connections have now indicated he will most likely be aimed at Aintree and will by-pass Cheltenham.
Golan Way has form on the course, which is something that should not be ignored and bookmakers reacted to his victory at the Open meeting by slashing his price for this contest. He looks to be a genuine horse with plenty of potential, however he was beaten by some decent runners next time out at Ascot.
One of them, Dee Ee Williams who came second in the Ascot contest, looked to have some potential, however his temperament did come into question and he did finish very tired next time out at Haydock.
Medermit, from the Alan King yard battled well to win the Ascot contest and he looks to have a potential star on his hands here. Currently on offer at around the 16/1 mark he looks to be good value.
Update: Hurricane Fly is now out of the Festival after sustaining a leg injury.
Update 8th March.
Cleraly Hurricane Fly not running greatly improves the chance of Cousin Vinny, who is certainly the best rated runner in the field. However 5/2 is a skinny price for arunner in a field that is likely to have a maximum field.
Medermit still looks to be a value bet at 16/1.
However it also needs to be pointed out that the Irish have an excellent record in this race and one raider in particular looks interesting and that is Willie Mullins Mikael D'haguenet. With the forecast soft ground playing to his favour and seemingly on the upgrade the 12/1 on offer should not be scoffed at.
Recommendations
2pts e/w Medermit (16/1 generally available) Placed
3pts e/w Mikael D'haguenet (12/1 generally available) non-runner
2:05 Irish Independent Arkle Challenge Trophy Steeple Chase
Panjo Bere was only a fair hurdler but is turning into a very interesting prospect over the larger obstacles.
He managed to beat, on merit, both Calgary Bar and Free World last time out at Ascot. He looks to be a natural jumper and he showed his bravery by easily coming between the top two in the betting making them look flat footed. Available at 16/1 he looks a good prospect.
Of the “big two” he beat at Ascot only Calgary Bay stands his ground and is currently favourite with the bookmakers. Although he has course winning form I still contest he was beaten on merit at Ascot and see no reason why he should be backed at 5/1 for this contest when his vanquisher is available at 16’s – it does not make sense.
Tatenen was looking for a three timer last time out at Leopardstown but some odd riding tactics saw him come home only second to Follow The Plan by a short head. Tatenen is vying for favouritism in this contest yet Follow The Plan is trading at 20/1. This, however, is more understandable than the difference in betting between Calgary Bay and Panjo Bere.
This contest at Cheltenham will be run to suit Tatenen and with Ruby Walsh likely to be back on board the tactics will be right. I certainly prefer Tatenen’s chances to those of Calgary Bay.
Forpadydeplasterer is one of those frustrating runners who shows potential then seems to bottle it on the big stage. After his performance at last years festival I am convinced Cheltenham is not his course. I would not touch him with a barge pole.
Recommendation
2pts e/w Panjo Bere (16/1 generally available) Unplaced
2:40 William Hill Trophy Handicap Steeple Chase
A key stat for this race is there has only been one winning favourite in the last 25 years.
Current betting has Can’t Buy Time as the jolly and he has done little wrong, however it looks as though he will be going for the National Hunt Chase.
Possol was a runner-up to the well regarded Nacarat at Kempton last time out, beating a large number of his potential rivals in the process. Third to Mon Mome here in December he is only six pounds better in for a 19 length beating.
Although Mon Mome has the beating of Possol on previous form he does have two ways of running and you would be taking a chance backing him in a Championship race.
Miss Mitch was very impressive against the boys at Ascot last time and her third to Geanako previously was also an impressive run. The handicapper has given her a reasonable chance off 10-7 and at 16/1 is worth a look.
The spanner in the works could be Star De Mohaison, who may well run in the Gold Cup but should connections decide to run him here he must have a very strong chance.
Recommendations
2pts e/w Miss Mitch (16/1 Paddy Power and VC Bet) Unplaced
3pts e/w Star De Mohaison (14/1 with a run - generally available) Unplaced
3:20 Smurfit Kappa Champion Hurdle Challenge Trophy
If the bookmakers are to be believed this is a one horse race, with the layers currently offering a best price of 6/4 Binocular and around 10/1 bar.
Whilst undoubtedly a very good horse the $64,000 question is – would you want to take the 6/4 in such a high quality race?
It needs to be remembered his only defeat since switching to jumping came at last years festival where he was beaten by Captain Cee Bee in last years Supreme Novices’. On the plus side he has improved this season running some 25lbs better than at last years Festival.
One of the biggest problems in finding something to take him on with are the question marks hanging over most of his main rivals.
Last years winner Katchit has been disappointing all four runs since Cheltenham and would need to show a massive improvement on his current form to figure in this years renewal.
The 2007 winner Sublimity only managed to finish fourth last year and has twice been beaten by Punjabi since then before winning a decent renewal of the December festival Hurdle at Leopardstown.
The aforementioned Punjabi had been unbeaten since coming home third in last years Champion Hurdle. His last appearance was in the Christmas Hurdle at Kempton where he fell at the last when in contention.
Winner that day was Harchibald, who is now probably past his best. Snap Tie finished second to Harchibald at Kempton but seems incapable of stringing two decent performances together.
Binocular should be the winner but for an each way option Punjabi may be worthy a look.
Update 25th January
Brave Inca put in a brave performance to win the Irish Champion Hurdle and his odds have been cut from 33/1 into 16/1. Sublimity, on the other hand, ran a shocker and a post race scope revealed an infection. His odds have gone out five points to 14/1.
Update 8th March
The softening ground must be a concern for Binocular and his price is starting to drift slightly, however is is still very much the clear favourite.
Recommendations
5pts win Binocular (6/4 Blue Square) third
2pts e/w Punjabi (14/1 Bet 365 & Ladbrokes) won
4:00 Glenfarclas Cross Country Handicap Steeple Chase
The final runners are still to be confirmed but the simple rule of thumb is see what Irish trainer Enda Bolger is running and concentrate on those. L'Ami ran well over course and distance in December and if he turns up for this one he may be well worth a look, depending on the price of course.
It looks as though Enda Bolger will be running both Garde Champetre and L'Ami in the race. the former beat the latter over course and distance in December, however most observers expect the form to be reversed in the big one.
In reality it is hard to look beyond these two, however we may want to try and find some value.
Paul Nolan's Dix Villez could be the one to benefit if either of the top two come a cropper, having said that he does have the potential to beat the top two. He controversially beat both the Bolger runners in a cross-country in November when jockey Davey Russell took a “short cut” which was in fact legitimate.
On the weights the handicapper has given him a chance, he is only 1lb worse off ath the weights for a three length beating of Garde Champetre and he has a seven pound pull over L ‘Ami.
The negative for Dix Villez is he has been off since November.
Recommendations
2pts e/w Dix Villez (6/1 Paddy Power and VC Bet) Unplaced
3pts win L’Ami (3/1 generally available) Unplaced
4:40 David Nicholson Mares' Hurdle Race
There are no trends for this race as it was only introduced at the 2008 Festival.
Last years winner Whiteoak will be back to defend here title. She won last years renewal in a driving finish with Refinement, although it needs to be pointed out this rears renewal will be half a furlong shorter.
Whiteoak certainly has the potential to win again and this is reflected in her price of around 3/1.
Chomba Womba was sent off favourite last year but only finished third, although she lost nothing in defeat. Her early season form was promising, however her more recent runs have been disappointing. Certainly in her last race she did not display her usual late burst, despite the urgings of AP McCoy. She is available at a best priced 7/1 but she would need to be back to her absolute best to win this one.
Lucy Wadham’s United was fourth in last years World Hurdle, not a bad result for a runner who looks to be better suited to 2m 4f. However this is another filly whose last run was disappointing.
Although she won the Mares’ Hurdle at Ascot by five lengths Dominic Elsworth had to work hard from some way out to get her home and the winning margin would have been less had the runner-up not made a mistake at the last. At here best she could take this contest but at 4/1 it is a lot to ask.
The Irish raiders Quevega and Give It Time are worth considering.
However for my selection I am going to go against perceived wisdom and go for a mare who fell here at Cheltenham last time out. My Petra has shown considerable improvement this season and the Nicky Henderson mare has been crying out for 2½ miles (she is a winner over 2m 3f at Ascot).
Following her Ascot victory she lost nothing in defeat going down to Gwanako.
Granted she fell last time out but it was her first fall in 17 outings over obstacles and at 14/1 she looks a good each way price.
Update 8th March
With our original selection My Perta now a non-runner we need to look elsewhere for a winner.
My initial choice would have been Give It Time, however 2½ miles in what look as though are going to be testing conditions could well be too much of a test of stamina.
For me Whiteoak and United are far too short.
Recommendation
2pts e/w Carole's Legacy (16/1 William Hill, Sporting Bet & VC Bet) Unplaced
previously advised
2pts e/w My Petra (14/1 Paddy Power & VC Bet) Non Runner