Cheltenham 2009 - Thursday

1:05 Jewson Novices' Handicap Chase

It looks as though Herecomesthetruth will be by-passing Cheltenham and going to Aintree instead. This leaves the way open for Philip Hobbs Massini’s Maguire, who went down by a nose to Herecomesthetruth at Sandown in January.

He has returned well from an injury layoff and his three runs since his return point to a distinct preference for around 2½ miles. The handicapper has done him no favours by giving him 11-10 but he looks an interesting prospect at the 12/1 mark.

Irish trainer Tony Martin knows how to prepare horses for handicaps and quite a few shrewdies have a good word for Clarified. Whilst it is dangerous to ignore a Martin “talking horse” there is a big risk this time in all the horses best performances have come on heavy ground.

A novice which has really caught my eye this season is Robert and Sally Alner’s Master Medic. Jockey Robert Walford rates him the best he has ridden in a long time and he has shown improvement with every run.

His only defeat over the larger obstacles was on debut and that was after a long break.

Recommendation
3pts e/w Master Medic (14/1 generally available)   

2:05 Pertemps Final (Handicap Hurdle)

This contest is almost the poor mans World Hurdle. The handicap for those not good enough for the big one.

Hills Of Aran ended up being the pacemaker for Kasbah Bliss at Haydock and could well acquit himself at this level.

However it is hard to look past the Irish raider P’Tit Fute. Only four years old he went into plenty of notebooks following a very impressive victory in a large Leopardstown field when stepped up in trip.

The handicapper has taken no chances in allocating top weight, much to the annoyance of connections. However he looks a promising recruit to the long distance hurdling ranks and even if he does not win this one he must be a future World Hurdle winner in years to come.

Recommendation
3pts e/w P’Tit Fute (8/1 generally available)

2:40 Ryanair Chase

One of the best innovations when the festival became a four day event, this two mile five furlong contest is for the top horses for whom two miles is too sharp and 3 miles too far.

There are some top horses in the entries this year and it looks as though it could be an interesting contest.

10/1 shot Imperial Commander has caught the eye of many observers and has seen some decent recent support. Relatively unexposed he was sixth to Kauto Star in the King George when last seen in public.

Paul Nicholls, it goes without saying, cannot be overlooked and his best prospect look to be Noland, who seems to have relished the step up to two and a half miles with two victories over the distance in Ireland.

Natal looks like being another Nicholls runner but he has too many letters in his form for my liking.

Tidal Bay has been tried over a variety of distances and this distance should not be a worry, but the price of 5/1 looks to be on the short side.

A very interesting contender could be Exotic Dancer, who has been running in the Gold Cup in recent years. However it may ne no great shock if he ran in the Ryanair this year and at current odds of 12/1 may be worth an each way speculative investment.

Monets Garden would be high on the short list if the race was anywhere but Cheltenham. He loves flat courses but seems to sulk at Cheltenham.

They say emotion is a bad trait when it comes to betting but however I look at this race I am still drawn to the favourite, Voy Por Ustedes. A winner at two of the last three festivals over two miles, beaten last year by Master Minded, he has since been stepped up in distance. On the first occasion reversing form with Master Minded over two and a half miles at Aintree.

Last time out he finished third to Kauto Star in the King George, not disgraced but the three miles looking just a shade too far.

Back to 2m 5f I can see him taking a third Festival trophy.

Recommendations
Exotic Dancer 2pts e/w (10/1 generally available)
Voy Por Ustedes 4pts win (4/1 generally available)

 

3:20 Ladbrokes World Hurdle

Had I written this a few days earlier I would have been waxing lyrical about the prospects of Inglis Drever winning a fourth World Hurdle. However he has now been retired.

Howard Johnson’s star was injured at Newbury in November but made a brief return to training early in January. However it became clear his heart was no longer in it and the correct decision was made to retire him – after all he owes connections nothing at all.

Punchestowns has been hailed the young pretender over staying hurdle distances. However his reputation suffered a dent when going down to Big Bucks in the Cleeve Hurdle at Cheltenham.

Bookmakers made a kneejerk reaction and lengthened his odds to as big as 7/2. However this was soon snapped up and he is now back in to 5/2, although Paddy power are offering 11/4.

Yes he was beaten by Big Buck’s and he won on merit. However there are two significant factors to be taken into account in the Cleeve.

First of all the ground was testing and it is unlikely it will be that tacky in March. Secondly in the Cleeve Punchestowns was giving Big Buck’s 8lbs for a four length defeat. In March they meet at level weights.

It is small wonder the 7/2 was snapped up.

Cleeve Winner Big Buck’s was cut from around 12/1 into 7/2 following the Cleeve win but his price has now settled down at the 4/1 mark.

Big Buck’s has certainly improved for the step up to three miles and is clearly on the upgrade. Can he turn round the four pound pull in six weeks. Possibly he could but the value has now gone and 4/1 is a skinny price.

French Raider Kasbah Bliss was runner-up to Inglis Drever in last years World Hurdle and is favourite to go one better this year. The key for him, however, is to have some juice in the ground, all his victories coming on ground good to soft or softer. So if you back him now at 9/4 you are not only backing the horse but the weather as well.

Inglis Drever received a rapturous reception when winning last year – the candidate for an emotional reception in this years renewal would no doubt be Lough Derg.

David Pipe’s charge is a brave fighter and he still managed to pull unexpected victories out of the bag. From a sentimental perspective I would love to see him win. However nowadays I don’t think three miles at Cheltenham is his forte and that is reflected in the generally available 33/1.

In conclusion I am going to take a chance on the weather improving and although the 7/2 has gone the 11/4 Paddy Power are still offering on Punchestowns is worth a small investment.

Recommendation
Punchestowns 3pts win (11/4 Paddy Power)  

 

4:00 Freddie Williams Festival Plate Handicap Steeple Chase

After eulogising about Massini’s Maguire for the Jewson, there is also a strong possibility he may turn up for this one instead.

If he does he looks hard to beat and the 12/1 on offer from Victor Chandler should be snapped up.

Regarding the other contenders, there are so many of the runners with multiple entries it is almost a pointless exercise looking at this contest in any more detail until all the riding plans are clear.

Recommendation
3pts e/w Massini’s Maguire (12/1 VC Bet with a run)

4:40 Fulke Walwyn and Kim Muir Challenege Cup Handicap Steeple Chase

A preview will appear here once there is clearer information as to what will be running.