Cheltenham 2009 - Friday

1:30 JCB Triumph Hurdle

A very open contest where it is very hard to to take a very strong position at this stage.

Nicky Henderson's Zaynar is the favourite following impressive wins at Newbury and Ascot in December and January. The only worry is his jumping was a bit sketchy in the early stages at Ascot. He will not be able to take so many chances and get away with it in the Triumph. For that reason alone I will swerve him at the currently available 7/2.

In the Newbury race Zaynar beat Walkon by four lengths. Walkon has gon on to win his two subsequent races and showed strength of character when winning the latter at Ascot.

Also in the Newbury race Walkon was giving 7lbs to Zaynar, at level weights he should easily reverse the form.  

Starluck is also vying for favouritism after a facile victory in the stanjamesuk.com Juvenile Novices’ hurdle at Kempton at Christmas. The only concern is he has only run on a flat track and it has to be taken on trust he will be able to handle a track like Cheltenham.

Recommendation
3pts win Walkon (5/1 generally available)

2:05 Vincent O'Brien County Handicap Hurdle

A preview will appear here once there is more information as to what will be running.

2:40 Albert Barlett Novices' Hurdle

A preview will appear here once there is more information as to what will be running.

3:20 Totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup Steeple Chase

The highlight of the Festival and the race which, last year, had even non-racing fans talking about it, as the Kauto Star / Denman debate even made it beyond the racing pages.

In the end it was a non-contest as Denman won the race with consummate ease.

This year, all being well, should see Kauto Star vs Denman Part Two. However this year things are different.

Kauto Star has raced three times this season, winning twice including a three timer in the King George.  His only blemish was when unseating Sam Thomas when in contention in the Betfair Chase at Haydock.

Denman, on the other hand has not been see on the course since winning last years Gold Cup. Having been treated for an irregular heartbeat he is back in training and is expected to make his seasonal debut in the Aon Chase at Newbury on 7th February. It may well be worth awaiting until after then to see how he has coped with the break. 

Would you want to back him at around 7/4 with his wellbeing unproven?  

If he runs poorly at Newbury his price will drift and, by contrast, Kauto Stars price will no doubt contract. Kauto Star is currently available at 11/4 – a good price if Denman is not fit.

Last years third Neptines Collonges, who almost beat his stablemate Kauto Star into second place in last years renewal, has had mixed fortunes since.

He went to the Punchestown Festival in April and took the Irish Gold Cup for the second year running. In the Lexus Chase at Leopardstown in December he made a rare blunder and fell two out when in with every chance. Often considered the stables third string he cannot be dismissed, especially if Denman is not fully fit and having proven he can give Kauto Star a run for his money on the day.

The big difference, however, is last year he was a 25/1 shot. This year the layers are being far more conservative and he is generally available at the 7/1 or 8/1 mark.

Last years fourth, Halcon Genelardais, is undoubtedly a good horse. However he never seems to perform to his best at Cheltenham, as he showed again in the Letheby & Christopher Chase at Cheltenham on 24th January. Sent off the favourite he was overhauled by Joe Lively. If the Gold Cup was run anywhere but Cheltenham he would be a lively chance and a much shorter price than his current 40/1. 

His  Letheby & Christopher conqueror saw his price dramatically cut for the Gold Cup after the victory and is now generally available at 33/1, having been a 100/1 previously. However there has been much more support for him in the Grand National where he is not far off the favourites (if you exclude Denman from the equation). Connections say he will run in both but I would not be surprised if he swerved Cheltenham for Aintree.  

Perennial bridesmaid Exotic Dancer finally managed a Group One victory in the Lexus, although it is arguable if he would had still run had Neptune Collonges stayed on his feet. In any other era Exotic Dancer would easily have been a Gold Cup winner.

However he has had the “misfortune” to be around the same time as Kauto Star and has always been in his shadow. If he were to win the Gold Cup there would be few at Cheltenham who would begrudge him the victory, however I cannot see him pulling it off.

The Queen will have a Gold Cup runner for the first time and her Barber's Shop has a lively outside chance, although he will have to show some improvement.

Denman's race in the rearranged Aon was absolutely appalling and he sadly looks to be a spent force, throwing the contest wide open.

Kauto Star is now favourite for the contest, however Denman’s apparent demise means Exotic Dancer will now head for the Gold Cup once again. Unfortunately the 20/1 has now gone but at 12/1 he is an interesting prospect and a bet I prefer to the 6/4 Kauto Star.  

Recommendation
2pts e/w Exotic Dancer (12/1 Sporting Bet)    

4:00 Christie's Foxhunters Steeple Chase

A preview will appear here once there is more information as to what will be running.

4:40 Martin Pipe Conditional Jockeys' Hurdle (A Handicap)

5:10 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual Steeplechase

A preview will appear here once there is more information as to what will be running.