Cheltenham 2008 - Friday

2:00 JCB Triumph Hurdle

An interesting race where Franchoek, this seasons new sensation, will be sent off favourite and he has a favourites chance, although any value has long gone.

If Franchoek should fail to perform to his best, then Celestial Halo, at around 11/2, could be the one to take advantage.

2:35 Albert Barlett Spa Novices' Hurdle

This is only the third running of this event, so trends are hard to spot. Gone To Lunch and Carruthers are currently fighting for favouritism at around the 5/1, 11/2 mark.

However I quite fancy Alan King's Nenuphar Collonges at around the 16/1 mark. Apart from an uncharacteristic fall at Exeter in December 2006 he hasn't finished out of the first two since April 2006. Including a course and distance beating of Gone To Lunch last December.

3:15 Totesport Cheltenham Gold Cup

The highlight of the final day of the festival is the Gold Cup and this years renewal looks to have the potential to be  a thriller.

It is hard to look beyond the defending champion Kauto Star, however at a best priced 11/8 he is little value, especially six weeks before the big day. If he is still that price on the day then he is worth an investment.

The potential fly in the ointment is his stable mate and young pretender, Denman. This precocious talent has done nothing wrong this season and although he is rated a few pounds behind his more illustrious companion he is still relatively unexposed and he must have more scope for improvement. He would have to run the race of his life to beat Kauto Star in the Gold Cup and it is possible. However with the best odds on offer being 9/4 I would suggest that is too short a price.

Exotic Dancer has been the eternal bridesmaid to Kauto Star. At any other time he would be  a Gold Cup winner in his own right, however he just seems unable to beat the Star. However he does love Cheltenham and is a good horse in his own right. Currently available at a best price of 12/1 he looks to be an each way steal. The only worry being his recent muscle strain and the hope he recovers in time for the festival. Of course should Kauto Star not turn up the 12/1 on offer will look like manna from heaven.

There have been scares about both Exotic Dancer and to a lesser extent Kauto Star, however ath the time of writing (2nd March) both are still set to run. Following a good victory at Newbury, Denman is now a best priced 6/4, whilst his stable mate is trading at a general evens. Fiollowing the injury scare Exotic Dancer is now available at 16/1 and well worth another investment.

4:00 Christie's Foxhunters

The Hunter Chasers Gold Cup, always an open event.

Two that stand out in terms of form both hail from the Paul Nicholls yard. Nicholls does not have too many runners in this race, however his last two runners in the race have both run.

It is unlilkely that both Lou Du Moulin Mas, a recent Fontwell winner and Thisthatandtother, also a Fontwell winner, but dissapointing in a subsequent race at Fakenham, will run. Whichever one does compete should be backed. Should they both run, then back them both each way.

4:35 Johnny Henderson Grand Annual

To be perfectly honest this race is an absolute nightmare from a punting point of view and any one of a number of runners could win the race. For me it is a "no play" race.

If you really want to have an investment, then look at the top half dozen in the betting and pick your fancy.

5:10 David Nicholson Mares Only Hurdle

Foe the first time, Friday at the Festival will host seven races. The new race being the David Nicholson Mares Hurdle. Current co-favourites are the Irish trained Sweet Kiln and Nicky Henderson's Chomba Womba, the latter being a revalation this season. Both are priced at around the 7/2 mark. However, and this is a big issue, both need plenty of cut in the ground and that is highly unlikely come the big day.

Theatre Girl made Chomba Womba work hard at Doncaster at the end of January and was the only horse to challenge Turbo Linn in the big Bumper at Aintree last year. She acts on any going and at 8/1 is musc better value than the favourites and she is certain to go off shorter on the day.

5:45 Vincent O'Brien County Hurdle

The traditional finale to the festival and a race that often goes to Ireland.

An interesting statistic is that the favourite seems to win this race almost every other year. Whilst statistics do not prove anything I think this year will see the favourite taking the honours.

The Tony Martin trained Psycho has been laid out for this race. An unlucky last race faller at Leopardsown last time out (in front at the time) his trainer rates him highly and I am not going o argue with that assessment.

Recommendations

Albert Bartlett Nenuphar Collonges 2pts e/w at 16/1  won at 9/1

Gold Cup   Exotic Dancer 2pts e/w at 16/1 unplaced

Foxhunters Lou Du Moulin Mas 2pts e/w at 7/1 (nrnb) unplaced
                   Thisthatandtother 2pts e/w at 12/1 (nrnb) non-runner

Mares Hurdle Theatre Girl 3pts e/w at 8/1 unplaced

County Hurdle Psycho 3pts e/w at 6/1 placed at 5/1

Previously advised

Triumph Hurdle Franchoek  5pts e/w at 10/1 (Bet Direct) lost

Gold Cup   Exotic Dancer 3pts e/w at 12/1 unplaced

Daily total:  £107.50 Profit

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